49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo won’t be a bargain for long
Quarterback’s early success with S.F. puts him in line for big payday in ’18
In his first three starts with the 49ers, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has generated widespread interest in a previously 1-10 team, jacked up attendance for his only home start and made No. 10 jerseys the Bay Area’s must-have Christmas gift.
For all that, the great victory, hope and revenue generator has been paid, based on his $820,077 base salary, $51,254 per win, making him the golden boy with the tin-can salary.
Garoppolo is, quite possibly, the biggest bargain in football. However, the 49ers’ underpaid employee of the month will be the franchise’s highest-paid employee in 2018.
Garoppolo is the final year of his contract, but his growing fan club shouldn’t panic. He will remain with the 49ers next season. The only
question now: Will he play next season under a one-year franchise tag that restricts him from negotiating with other teams and will net him at least $23 million fully guaranteed? Or will he have signed a long-term mega-deal?
In late November, before Garoppolo began his December to remember, head coach Kyle Shanahan said the franchise tag was the most likely outcome. At the time, Garoppolo had finished only one NFL start and thrown 94 passes. The 49ers liked him, but weren’t ready to invest long-term, elite-QB money in someone so unproven.
“It would be great if it could work out that way (a long-term contract), but that’s just not the situation any of us are in,” Shanahan said.
Less than a month later, however, Garoppolo has a 3-0 record with the 49ers, has directed two game-winning drives and thrown for more yards in a three-game span (1,008) than any 49ers quarterback in 17 years.
The eye test suggests he’s already among the NFL’s best. However, those with experience negotiating player contracts believe the 49ers will still opt to use the franchise tag, effectively hedging their bet on Garoppolo.
Joel Corry, an NFL agent for 16 years who now covers contract and salary-cap issues for CBS Sports, notes recent NFL history is littered with fool’sgold quarterbacks. Rob Johnson, Kevin Kolb, Brock Osweiler and Mike Glennon are among those who signed rich contracts after briefly playing well.
“The safest thing to do is put the tag on him,” Corry said. “It buys you time to see if he actually is legitimate or if this is just a hot streak.”
According to another agent contacted by The Chronicle, the idea of Garoppolo signing a contract that would approach the record $60.5 million guarantee given in August to Detroit’s Matthew Stafford is unlikely: “He’s not getting that. And if his agents think he’s getting that, then you just franchise tag him.
“He doesn’t have a track record. He hasn’t won in the playoffs. He looks really good, but if I’m the 49ers, I’m not anxious to hand him five years and $70 million” guaranteed.
If the 49ers give Garoppolo the franchise tag, which restricts a player’s options but guarantees a contract valued at the average of the five highest salaries at his position, he would earn just more than $23 million in 2018. They also could tag him the next two seasons, but the price tag would increase 20 percent in 2019 (to about $28 million). In 2020, the figure would be 144 percent of his 2019 salary (about $40 million).
The 49ers don’t want to follow the lead of Washington, which hedged on Kirk Cousins, who is the only quarterback to receive the franchise tag in back-to-back seasons. Washington could sign Cousins to a long-term deal this offseason, but it might have to make him the NFL’s highest-paid player to keep him.
Similarly, Garoppolo’s value could skyrocket if his threestart 49ers’ debut is a harbinger of his 2018 season.
“If Garoppolo is just scratching the surface, and he goes out and lights it up” next season, Corry said, “you’re going to wish you’d done the long-term deal this offseason.”
A monster deal for Garoppolo this offseason soon could resemble a bargain, given the top quarterbacks who will soon be signing deals or extensions. New Orleans’ Drew Brees is in the final year of his contract, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is scheduled to be a free agent in 2019 and Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers are set to hit the market in 2020.
For his part, Rodgers is an exception to those fool’s-gold quarterbacks. Corry noted the Packers gambled on Rodgers in 2008 when they made him the NFL’s fourth-highest-paid QB (by annual salary) when he had made just eight career starts.
Like Rodgers, who spent his three seasons backing up Brett Favre, Garoppolo has immediately impressed after spending his first three-plus seasons backing up New England’s Tom Brady.
If the 49ers are ready to bet on Garoppolo, like the Packers did with Rodgers, agent David Canter advises Garoppolo’s representatives to tread carefully. Canter has respect for 49ers executive and chief contract negotiator Paraag Marathe, who worked out an exceedingly team-friendly deal with quarterback Colin Kaepernick in 2014.
“Paraag is one of the most ingenious and creative contracts minds, on the football side, in our industry,” Canter said. “He’s really good about doing deals that make everyone feel good about them when they first do them, but aren’t really that good for the player.”
Money won’t be an impediment for the 49ers, who are scheduled to have an NFL-high $116 million salary-cap space in 2018, according to overthecap .com. The roadblock to a longterm deal figures to be their willingness to pay Garoppolo elite-QB money after he has made, at most, seven career starts.
Another agent, who is a big believer in Garoppolo, still thinks the most prudent option is for the 49ers to give Garoppolo the franchise tag. However, he did float the idea that the 49ers could be swayed to do a longterm deal if Garoppolo torches the Jaguars on Sunday: Jacksonville is 10-4, has allowed the fewest points in the NFL and boasts two Pro Bowl cornerbacks.
The agent said the notion of placing so much emphasis on one game was probably “crazy,” but Corry didn’t necessarily dismiss the idea.
“This a real litmus test,” Corry said. “If he takes care of Jacksonville, that’s going to make you feel a lot better . ... You wouldn’t think one game would do it, but you would feel a lot better.”