Eternal drought
Don’t let that smattering of rain and dusting of snow at Lake Tahoe Wednesday distract you from the ominous weather pattern we’ve experienced for the rest of December: dry, dry, dry. The state hasn’t slid back into drought yet, but it is time to start planning as if it has. In fact, drought is shaping up as the new normal for our state.
The U.S. Drought Monitor last week classified 44 percent of the state as “abnormally dry” — one step removed from “moderate drought” — as a high-pressure air mass hovering over the state has diverted storms northward. This is an all-too familiar pattern that we saw during the most recent drought.
The deluge of the 2016-17 water year was almost enough (but not quite) to make Californians forget the five years of drought that preceded it. If we take a longer view of the state’s weather, 11 of the past 17 years have been dry and warm. In fact, 2017 was the warmest year in California on record. (Who could forget that it was a record 106 degrees on Sept. 1 in downtown San Francisco?)
No one likes the deprivations, psychological and actual, of drought. So it’s only natural we continue to hope significant rain will sweep the state next week or next month. But the long-range forecast suggests we’ll see sunny and dry through February, typically the end of the rainy season. If that forecast is wrong, hope will give way to the need to cope immediately with impending drought.
Better that we plan ahead, and live as if water is scarce, rain unpredictable and stored water precious. The state’s groundwater basins haven’t yet recovered from the past drought. This dry spell should give new urgency to the groundwater sustainability agencies created under the landmark groundwater law passed in 2014 to complete their plans to avoid damaging overpumping.
If the rains arrive, then we’ll all rejoice — and be well positioned for the next, inevitable drought. But if it remains dry, and we didn’t plan, we’ll be left battling over water for fish, farms and cities and praying for a March miracle.