GOP Rep. Royce’s sudden retirement
Democrats hoping to recapture Congress by flipping 24 GOP-held seats may have caught an unexpected break Monday in Orange County: Thirteen-term Republican Rep. Ed Royce announced he would not seek re-election, giving Democrats a chance to win a rapidly changing district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
Royce, R-Fullerton, represents one of 10 GOP-held districts in California that Democrats are targeting in this year’s midterm elections, but he was considered one of the stronger incumbents in the bunch. He won re-election in 2016 by 15 points (with 57 percent of the vote), even though Clinton won his district by nine points over Donald Trump. Royce’s fundraising remained strong, and he had $3.4 million cash on hand, nearly twice as much as his nearest Democratic challenger.
“Of the batch of (the targeted Orange County districts) I thought his was the safest,” said Louis DeSipio, a professor of political science at UC Irvine.
The demographics of Royce’s longtime GOP stronghold have changed significantly since he first was elected in 1992. Now, more than half the district’s residents are Latino or Asian Pacific Islander, and the district’s party registration is equally split between Republicans and Democrats. The nonpartisan Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales ranked the district as “lean Republican.”
But Royce, 66, in his last year as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said Monday it was time to leave so he could “focus fully on the urgent threats facing our nation, including the brutal, corrupt and dangerous regimes in Pyongyang and Tehran, Vladimir Putin’s continued efforts to weaponize information to fracture western democracies, and growing terrorist threats in Africa and Central Asia.
“With this in mind, and with the support of my wife, Marie, I have decided not to seek reelection in November,” Royce said in a statement. Last week, President Trump nominated Marie Royce to be assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs.
Longtime Orange County insiders were surprised at Royce’s announcement.
“It was a total shock to everybody in Orange County. Nobody saw this coming,” said Scott Baugh, the former GOP Assembly leader from Newport Beach.
And, added Baugh, “There’s no obvious heir apparent there.”
One heir could be Baugh himself, who has raised $546,914 in case Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa (Orange County), decides to retire. On Monday, Baugh said, “It’s too early to tell.” Members of Congress aren’t required to live in the district they represent.
But some Republicans who could be interested in the seat are seeking other positions. Former California Assemblywoman Young Kim, R-Fullerton (Orange County), is running for Orange County supervisor. Former state Sen. Ling Ling Chang, R-Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County), was planning a rematch against incumbent state Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, who defeated her last year.
Alarm about Trump’s presidency has inspired several Democrats to run — and raise big money. Three of Royce’s challengers are health insurance executive Andy Thorburn, lottery winner and Naval officer Gil Cisneros, and physician Mai Khanh Tran. Each has raised more than $600,000.