The most deserving in a good movie year
Our critic weighs in on films, performers that ought to capture Oscar nominations
nominations On Tuesday, will Jan. be 23, announced, the Oscar and this year they almost can’t go wrong. There were many exceptional and very good movies released in 2017, so the odds of something truly awful slipping into any of the major categories are pretty slim. But what would be the ideal roster of nominees? We all have our own ideas, and what follows are mine. These are the movies and performances I’d like to see honored in the major categories. Along the way we’ll take note of probable nominees and winners, but the major emphasis here will be on what should happen, on those that are most deserving, the most impressive cinematic achievements in a strong year for movies.
Best supporting actress This category contains what I consider to be the year’s single best performance, that of Melissa Leo as the Reverend Mother in “Novitiate.” It’s a performance of frightening intensity and endless variety, but she probably won’t be nominated because nobody saw the movie. Alas, most people don’t want to see a movie about nuns, or at least they think they don’t.
This probably will leave a clear field for Allison Janney, who will certainly be nominated for “I, Tonya.” Janney is funny and horrifying as Tonya Harding’s abusive mother, and, were it not for Leo, would certainly deserve the prize. Others worthy of nomination: Tiffany Haddish for her sidesplitting performance in “Girls Trip”; Julianne Nicholson as the agnostic mother of a novice nun (“Novitiate”) and Lesley Manville as a dress designer’s cold-as-ice business manager in “Phantom Thread.”
Who am I leaving out among the most likely nominees? Laurie Metcalf as the difficult mother in “Lady Bird.” She’s fine, but the character is so negative and undermining, even as the film seems to be on her side, and something about that feels discordant.
Best supporting actor As usual, this is a strong category. Almost certain to be nominated — and I hope he wins — is Sam Rockwell, who plays a dumb, racist cop in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Until now, Rockwell has been little appreciated, but this is one of our best actors, full of humanity and idiosyncrasy, and here he takes a journey from ignorance to the beginning of wisdom that’s a privilege to follow.
Also worthy of honors are Christopher Plummer as the old skinflint J. Paul Getty in “All the Money in the World”; Ray Romano, as the concerned father of a sick woman in “The Big Sick”; Steve Carell as a dead ringer for tennis hustler Bobby Riggs in “Battle of the Sexes”; and Ben Mendelsohn as King George VI, who gradually finds himself warming toward Winston Churchill in “The Darkest Hour.”
What is it about George VI? Whether it’s Mendelsohn, or Jared Harris in TV’s “The Crown” or Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech,” everybody is great in this role.
Another possible nominee that is equally deserving is Armie Hammer, as the object of a young man’s romantic fixation in “Call Me by Your Name.” I’m less enthusiastic about Willem Dafoe for “The Florida Project,” except in the life-achievement-award sense. But I expect he’ll be nominated at Mendelsohn or Carell’s expense. Best actress If I were running the world, I would give the Oscar to either Margot Robbie for “I, Tonya” or Michelle Williams for “All the Money in the World.” Both are brilliant, but the one that keeps lingering in the mind is Williams, so I suppose I’d vote for her. Factor in her history — “Manchester by the Sea,” “Blue Valentine,” “My Week With Marilyn,” “Wendy and Lucy” — and a Williams vote becomes even more tempting.
To round out my list of nominees, I’d also include Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Rachel Weisz (“My Cousin Rachel”) and Judi Dench (“Victoria & Abdul”). The latter two will not be nominated, but the marvelous subtlety of Weisz’s work deserves acknowledgment, and so does Dench’s intimate dive into the abyss of old age.
Instead, expect to see nominations for one or more of the following: Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”); Jessica Chastain (for the wrong movie, “Molly’s Game,” instead of “The Zookeeper’s Wife”); Meryl Streep (for “The Post”); and Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”). All of them are respectable efforts. Best actor This one’s easy. I nominate Gary Oldman five times for “Darkest Hour.” And the winner is . . . Gary Oldman.
However, if you insist that others be included, then let’s throw in Chadwick Boseman (underappreciated for “Marshall”), Timothée Chalamet (ideal in “Call Me by Your Name”), Domhnall Gleeson (pained and lovely in “Goodbye Christopher Robin”) and Daniel Day-Lewis (just because he’s always nominated doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve it for “Phantom Thread”).
Of those listed above, Boseman and Gleeson probably don’t have a chance. Meanwhile, Daniel Kaluuya is an almost certain nominee for “Get Out.” And James Franco has a decent chance of picking up a nomination for “The Disaster Artist.” Best director My nominees for best director are Margaret Betts (“Novitiate”), Craig Gillespie (“I, Tonya”), Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me by Your Name”), Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”), and Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”). Each is notable for different reasons.
Betts is deserving for her direction of the ensemble — this is a film with not one or two, but five or six great, memorable performances. Gillespie deserves acknowledgment for his sustaining a very particular tone, riding a line between serious, satirical, sympathetic and sardonic, while creating the false but appealing sense of something being made on the fly. Guadagnino captures and bottles, through cinematic surfaces, the physical feeling of being 17. Nolan reconceives the war movie on his own uncompromising terms. And Joe Wright is nominated because . . . well, I enjoyed “Darkest Hour” as much as or more than any film I saw in 2017.
I’d vote for Betts, but I would be happy with any of the above.
But these won’t be the five nominees. Rather, I expect Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”) to be nominated, as well as Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”) and Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards”). Steven Spielberg might even be nominated for the good-notgreat “The Post.” Best picture There are a minimum of eight nominees for best picture, so here are mine: “Battle of the Sexes,” “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Goodbye Christopher Robin,” “I, Tonya,” “Novitiate,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
Some of these will be nominated, but others eliminated to make room for “The Shape of Water,” “The Post,” “Get Out,” and “Lady Bird” — and one in this latter group probably will be the winner. Other possible nominees are “All the Money in the World” and “Wonder Woman.”
If I could wave a wand and choose, I’d give best picture to “Novitiate,” because I really do think it’s the best film of the year. However, I’d be delighted to see “I, Tonya” win, because it would be a real departure for a voting body to choose a farce for top honors. And I’d be almost as pleased to see “Dunkirk,” “Darkest Hour” or “Three Billboards” in the winner’s circle.
Whatever wins, it’ll be fine. As there is no 2017 equivalent of “Avatar” or “Finding Neverland” among the possible nominees this time out, there can be no scraping of the proverbial barrel.