Standoff: Dems could win if they hold firm, especially in California
A cynical political sideshow to the federal shutdown began hours before the government closure early Saturday, as both parties started jockeying to score political points by blaming the other for not doing its job.
For those following the shutdown blame game on social media, it was Team #SchumerShutdown vs. Team #TrumpShutdown. To many voters not already in one partisan camp, however, history shows that sort of insider sniping just sounds like more noise coming from Washington. But this time things could be different, analysts said, because one party — the GOP — controls the House, Senate and presidency. That could help Democrats win the blame battle, at least in California, if they frame their position well and don’t buckle.
By stressing that they won’t
budge on a funding bill unless it contains protections for the 700,000 “Dreamers,” undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children, Democrats could strengthen their position in many of the seven Republicanheld California Congressional districts they are targeting because Hillary Clinton beat President Trump there in 2016.
In more than half of those districts, at least 24 percent of the registered voters are Latino, and protection of the Dreamers is among their top priorities, Matt Barreto, co-founder of Latino Decisions, a nonpartisan polling firm that has done extensive polling in California, said Saturday.
Democrats usually get about 80 percent of the Latino vote in California. And in a survey of 900 registered Latino voters released last week by Latino Decisions, 68 percent said they are “100 percent” certain to vote this year, largely driven by Trump’s decisions on immigration, including ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program. That’s an extraordinarily high figure.
“There’s a good chance if the Democrats stay on message, and say they’re standing up for Dreamers and are tired of the anti-immigrant excuses for not (protecting them), they can use it as a campaign issue,” said Barreto, whose firm did national polling for Clinton’s presidential campaign.
“But they have to message it. They can’t just shut down the government. There is overwhelming support for tying the Dreamers to the budget debate in the Latino community,” said Barreto, a professor of political science and Chicano studies at UCLA.
Among the districts that could be influenced by shutdown politics if Democrats get their message across are those of:
Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock (Stanislaus County), where 40 percent of the residents and 28 percent of the registered voters are Latino, according to the nonpartisan California Target Book, a compendium of statistics on the state’s political districts.
Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford (Kings County), where 71 percent of the population and 57 percent of the registered voters are Latino.
Rep. Steve Knight, RLancaster (Los Angeles County), where 35 percent of the population and 24 percent of the registered voters are Latino.
Rep. Ed Royce, RFullerton (Orange County), where 33 percent of the residents and 24 percent of the voters are Latino. Royce has said he is not running for re-election.
Holding their ground could also help the Democrats in another way, said Darry Sragow, publisher of the California Target Book.
“Democrats for quite some time now have been accused of not having a message,” Sragow said. “This gives them a chance to express their message that they are the party that helps people who are trying to work hard and play by the rules and do the right thing,”
But even if voters do blame an extended shutdown on Republicans, there’s is no guarantee they would carry their sour feelings into the voting booth. In 2013, polling showed that more voters blamed Republicans for the shutdown that year. But they seemed to have forgotten that by the following November, when Republicans maintained control of the House and took back the Senate from Democrats.
But Lanhee Chen, a chief policy adviser on Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign who is advising Senate Republican candidates this year, said while immigration is a big issue in California, it isn’t in many Midwestern states, such as Indiana and Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Sens. like Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Sen. Joe Donnelly, DInd., are trying to win re-election in those states, which supported Trump overwhelmingly.
A December Morning Consult national poll found that while the Dreamers had a lot of support nationally, only 25 percent of the respondents were “definitely” willing to see the government shut down in support of their cause.
“It’s risky for both sides. Democrats risk overplaying their hand on immigration being an issue,” Chen said. “Obviously, they feel that it will motivate their base so they feel it is a calculated risk. For Republicans, because they’re perceived to be in charge of everything, the risk is obvious.
“So I’m not convinced it plays well for either side. And I’m also not convinced it matters to voters once we get to November. It’s a long time between now and November,” Chen said. “For a lot of voters, I think (assigning blame for a shutdown) is kind of a ‘pox on both their houses’ kind of dynamic.”
Former California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, who served during previous shutdowns, agrees that “in general, (voters) do” blame both parties for the federal government grinding to a halt.
But “they’re going to blame the people who run the show,” Boxer said on The Chronicle’s “It’s All Political” podcast. “The truth is people are not dumb. They know who is running the show. A shutdown is a disaster for the country, and it’s horrible for those who are controlling the presidency, the House of Representatives and the Senate.”
“There’s a good chance if the Democrats stay on message, and say they’re standing up for Dreamers and are tired of the anti-immigrant excuses for not (protecting them), they can use it as a campaign issue.” Matt Barreto, co-founder of Latino Decisions