John Shea: Rotation gambles for Giants, A’s: nobody new.
Time was, the pitching rotations by the bay were the foundation of playoff baseball. Solid starting pitching was front and center, and everything else made up the supporting cast. Offenses and bullpens went as far as the rotations would carry them.
Curiously, neither the Giants nor the A’s had any significant offseason additions to rotations that were mediocre at best in 2017, the Giants ranking 15th in the majors in rotation ERA and the A’s 20th.
We’re left with the rarity of wide-open competitions and the reality that there’s no plan to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. For now, the Giants’ rotation goes only three-deep, the A’s twodeep. That’s not exactly the blueprint of teams from yesteryear when there was more clarity about the top four (sometimes five) starters by this time of year.
Then again, it’s 2018. Starting pitchers’ roles aren’t what they were. The Dodgers won the pennant with the best rotation ERA in the majors, yet their starters were 17th in innings and last in starts of 100-plus pitches. The Giants were second in innings, not that it mattered.
General manager Bobby Evans revealed in a Chronicle story in December that 2018 could bring a reduction in the rotation workload. With metrics showing a pitcher’s numbers generally worsen the deeper he gets into a game, especially the third time through the lineup, the trend is to rely more heavily on bullpens.
The Giants added lefty reliever Tony Watson and swingman Derek Holland, a former Rangers starter who’s coming off a rough year with the White Sox. The A’s brought in Emilio Pagan (Ryon Healy trade) and Yusmeiro Petit.
But the rotations are same ol’, same ol’, a huge risk on both sides. The A’s could use a veteran starter — which they always seem to have — and the Giants could use another experienced arm. But the Giants focused on their many other needs and vowed to stay beneath the $197 million tax threshold, and the A’s were so determined to stick with all young guys that they didn’t send a scout to Tim Lincecum’s showcase.
All that’s known is the Giants will start Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, and the A’s will start Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea. From there, the Giants hope Chris Stratton and Ty Blach could fill the holes, and the A’s have a slew of candidates for their final three spots.
The Giants traded Matt Moore, figuring the struggling pitcher’s loss could be the team’s gain, and Matt Cain retired. Sonny Gray was dealt from Oakland to the Bronx in July. They’ll all be replaced in-house, and that’s a new twist for teams that could have used outside help but preferred to stick with the status quo. Cure for tanking: With all the talk of tanking, perhaps the players’ union should have been more open to a payroll floor. The players didn’t realize it when negotiating the current collective bargaining agreement, but they agreed to a virtual salary cap, otherwise known as the competitive balance tax threshold.
A payroll floor could help diminish the process of tanking, a term agents use freely but one that Commissioner Rob Manfred despises. Manfred suggests teams simply are rebuilding as part of baseball’s cyclical nature. Either way, it’s clear at least a third of the teams are looking to compete in future years, not in 2018, which isn’t exactly healthy for the game, especially when many of these clubs benefit from revenue sharing.
When teams realize they’d finish with a losing record whether or not they sign a free agent for $10 million or $15 million, they back off and fill spots from within. A floor could force a team to make that signing if it means reaching a minimum level of payroll. On the other hand, that could lead teams to take on bad contracts, which would disrupt any true rebuild.
The union has opposed a floor — owners in turn would want a cap — but perhaps in talks for the next CBA, the players could push not only for a floor but a guarantee of a revenue percentage. Until further notice, revenues are growing and payrolls are not.
Harper and Dodgers: In his first spring training chat with reporters, Washington’s Bryce Harper said, “I’m walking right out that door” if anyone asks about 2019 and his much-anticipated free agency, so the questions were directed elsewhere.
That’s not to say we can’t speculate, and we’ll speculate that he’ll be a Dodger next season and that the announcement will come at December’s winter meetings in Harper’s hometown of Las Vegas, where he grew up playing ball and listening to Vin Scully broadcasts.
The Dodgers are sticking below the tax threshold to not only avoid penalties this year but reset for next year when they can go all in on Harper, who could command a $400 million payday, maybe $500 million.
Can the Dodgers afford it? That’s a clown question, bro, and I’m walking right out that door. Noticeable void: While it’s odd Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas and other free agents remain unsigned, it’s also odd that spring training opened without Dusty Baker managing after he guided the Nationals to 192 wins the previous two years and stunningly got canned by the Lerner family ownership, which is known for its shoddy treatment of managers.
On the other hand, Baker has a golden opportunity to follow Cal baseball and its freshman second baseman, Darren Baker.
Could an up-andcoming team use Baker? Consider this: He helped jump-start all four franchises he managed. They combined for a plus-66 in wins compared to the years before he arrived — plus-31 with the 1993 Giants, plus-21 with the 2003 Cubs, plus-2 with the 2008 Reds (who won 91 games his third year) and plus-12 with the 2016 Nationals.