Spike in health insurance premiums likely in state

Health insurance premiums in California are expected to rise nearly 18 percent in 2019 as a result of federal policy changes enacted by Congress and the Trump administration, according to an analysis released Monday by the Urban Institute leftleaning think tank.

In 2019, roughly 1 million fewer Californians will be enrolled in health plans in California’s individual market — a 42 percent drop compared with how many people would be enrolled in 2019 if changes to the Affordable Care Act had not been enacted, according to the analysis. The projections apply to insurance plans on the individual market, a relatively small percentage of the overall health insurance market that excludes plans offered through employers and Medicaid.

Nationally, 9 million more Americans will be uninsured in 2019 as a result of the recent changes, the institute found. That is a significantly larger projection than the 4 million people the Congressional Budget Office estimated would be uninsured in 2019 in the agency’s November analysis. This is because the Urban Institute’s analysis includes the Trump administration’s latest proposal, announced last week, to loosen restrictions on the sale of short-term insurance plans. It also includes data from states’ open enrollment periods, which generally ran from November until January.

The Urban Institute analysis, which includes a national and state-bystate breakdown of projected changes to insurance premiums and enrollment, takes into account several major health policy changes enacted or announced since the beginning of 2017.

The most significant of these changes include the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, which was included in the GOP tax bill passed in December, and the suspension of the federal government’s cost-sharing subsidies to insurance companies. They also include the proposed rule change advanced by the Department of Health and Human Services last week that would extend the period of time a person can be on a short-term health insurance plan that is cheaper but less comprehensive in its coverage than long-term plans.