Taking the ‘smart path’ on March Madness bets
Starting Thursday, March 15, through this weekend, Las Vegas sports books will be packed with raucous fans watching the first two rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament on huge screens and cheering at the top of their lungs. That frenzy, along with the astounding upsets, is why they call it March Madness.
This year there’s no dominant favorite, said Jason McCormick, sports book director for Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas. “The tournament pool seems to have stretched out from half a dozen teams who can win it to potentially even a dozen teams,” he said. “You can make an argument that you could even go 20 deep if somebody really catches fire.”
On Monday, March 12, Villanova had a slight edge at 9 to 2, followed by Virginia (the overall top seed) at 5 to 1, Duke at 6 to 1, Michigan State at 7 to 1 and Michigan at 10 to 1. Part of the reason Villanova is the favorite is they have a less challenging bracket than other schools, McCormick said.
Chuck Esposito, sports book director for Sunset Station in Henderson, Nev., said that smaller schools can do well in the tournament because they have players who have been together for three or four years. (Perennial powerhouses, like Duke and Kentucky, often lose their stars to the NBA after one season.) So some of the point spreads in games between top teams and lower seeds are narrow. Kentucky is just a six-point favorite over Davidson, Stephen Curry’s alma mater, which squeaked into the tourney.
Recently, some analysts have advised betting underdogs in the first round as favorites can play tight due to nerves. But McCormick doesn’t subscribe to that.
“We have to go with our numbers,” he said, “because for every guy that’s betting the underdogs, there’s a guy betting the favorites.”
However, there’s a “smart path with some of these teams that are seven- or eight-point underdogs,” he added. “We’ve all watched these March Madness games come down to the wire with buzzer beaters and put scares into top teams. But you’ll also have five or six games that are absolute blowouts.”
Furthermore, Esposito said, “there is a lot of value with some of the smaller schools,” such as Loyola Chicago, South Dakota State and New Mexico State. Other factors to consider: Teams playing close to home may do better due to fan support.
See how conferences as a whole play in the first round, Esposito advised. If they’re doing well, the winners may have good games in the second round. And underdogs may do better in the first half (you can bet on just the first half ) if the favorite has no familiarity with the arena.
A final note: McCormick said he had “fully expected” St. Mary’s to be invited to the tournament. Had they made it, their odds to win the tourney would have far better than more than 20 teams who did get in.