Succession issue now at fore of Putin’s new term
MOSCOW — With his best election showing ever, President Vladimir Putin is shifting comfortably into his next six-year term, but the gnawing question of what comes next already looms on Russia’s horizon.
At his first appearance after Sunday’s victory, Putin was immediately asked about his plans beyond 2024, reflecting Russia’s nervousness about the succession issue that will dominate the political landscape for the near future.
Putin piled up nearly 77 percent of the vote, burnishing his credentials as a leader who enjoys overwhelming public support. That will give him more room to ponder his choice: groom a reliable successor, scrap term limits or create a new position of power so he can continue pulling the strings after his fourth term ends.
All those options will remain on the table, and Putin probably will wait a few more years before making his choice.
Asked if he could initiate changes to the constitution, he answered with a characteristic reticence, saying he has no such plans “yet.” He also laughed off a suggestion that he could take a six-year break before moving to reclaim the presidency in 2030.
“It’s a bit ridiculous, let’s do the math. Shall I sit here until I turn 100? No!” he said.
Alexander Baunov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, said it would be good for Putin “to leave the presidential post with a record high result,” since this is theoretically his final presidential term.
“His final term in this chair ... will be a period of transition of power. It’s much easier to enter this transition of power when you have this especially high result,” Baunov said.
In the past few years, Putin has methodically reshuffled Cabinet members and provincial governors. Some of them, such as Tula Gov. Alexei Dyumin, 45, and Economics Minister Maxim Oreshkin, 35, have been named among potential successors.
Skeptics note, however, that the Kremlin might deliberately encourage succession rumors to see how the elites and broader public react, even though Putin might intend to stay on the job.
The 65-year-old leader remains in good physical shape, continuing to play ice hockey and engaging in other vigorous activities, and he could be strong enough to carry on beyond 2024.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s action to scrap term limits could offer a tempting example for the Russian leader. Xi was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Putin.
Putin observed the two-term limit in 2008, shifting into the prime minister’s seat and allowing longtime associate Dmitry Medvedev to serve as a placeholder president for four years. Putin, however, was unhappy with Medvedev’s performance, particularly his decision to allow the West to launch a military action in Libya that led to the ouster and death of its longtime leader, Moammar Khadafy.
After reclaiming the presidency in 2012, Putin focused on reasserting Russia’s global clout and acted boldly to defy the West.