Newsom’s lead strengthens in primary race for governor

As California voters begin paying more attention to the upcoming June 5 primary, Democrat Gavin Newsom is pulling into a strong lead position in the race for governor as a pair of Republican candidates gain strength, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

“There’s now a big gap between (Newsom) and everyone else,” said Mark Baldassare, the institute’s CEO and director of the poll.

The lieutenant governor, who has long been seen as the front-runner to replace termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown, has the support of 28 percent of the state’s likely voters, double the 14 percent for Republican businessman John Cox.

The new numbers are anything but good

news for Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa. The former Los Angeles mayor, who trailed Newsom by only 2 percentage points, 23 percent to 21 percent, in the institute’s January survey, saw his support skid to 12 percent. That puts him between Cox and GOP Assemblyman Travis Allen (10 percent) in the clash for the second ballot spot. The top two candidates advance to the November election, regardless of party.

Democrats John Chiang (6 percent) and Delaine Eastin (5 percent) round out the top contenders.

“The biggest change in the poll is probably the number of people who now are paying attention to news about the governor’s race,” Baldassare said. “People seem to be getting focused about what the candidates are doing and saying, and that’s helped Newsom and Cox.”

Nearly half of California’s likely voters are now following the governor’s race at least fairly closely, a jump of 18 percentage points since January.

That’s helped Cox, who was at 7 percent in the previous poll. He has been focusing his advertising on Republicans and talking about lower taxes and less regulation, “which resonates with some of the voters,” Baldassare said.

But while Newsom seems to be in a strong position to finish in the top two, Baldassare said, the tight grouping of the rest of the pack and the 24 percent of voters who haven’t picked a candidate means second place is very much in play.

It’s very different in the U.S. Senate primary, where incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein continues to hold a commanding lead over fellow Democrat Kevin de León, a state senator from Los Angeles.

Feinstein, seeking her fifth full term in office, holds a 42 percent to 16 percent lead over de León, who has argued that the former San Francisco mayor is too much of a centrist to represent California properly. But 54 percent of likely voters approve of the job Feinstein is doing in the Senate, and she even outpolls de León among likely Latino voters, 41 percent to 22 percent.

The Democrats-only battle for the Senate seat is likely to continue until November, since no credible Republican has signed on to challenge Feinstein. That’s likely the main reason that 71 percent of Republicans are unhappy with their potential choices in the contest.

The poll also included a bright red flag for groups seeking to put tax measures on the November ballot. A PPIC poll record 49 percent of adults and 58 percent of likely voters say they believe California is near the top nationally in state and local taxes, while 61 percent of likely voters say they are paying more taxes than they should.

“That’s an attitude that could influence any measure that affects taxes,” Baldassare said.

But voters also signaled their willingness to back a state water bond on the June ballot and an affordable housing bond expected for November. Although they were presented with no details about the bonds, a bipartisan 66 percent of likely voters backed the water bond, while a Democrat-heavy 64 percent favored an affordable housing measure.

“There’s concern over taxes, but voters continue to view bonds as free money for projects they like,” Baldassare said.

The poll is based on a telephone survey conducted March 4-13 of 1,706 California adults, including 931 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for the entire survey and plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for likely voters.