A little too soon for Woods’ win
Tiger Woods did not get hit by a bus. This might seem like a curious way to start a Masters preview column, but some perspective is in order on the brink of Thursday’s opening round at Augusta National. Woods counts as a realistic threat to win this year’s Masters, absolutely. His return to relevance, after four back surgeries and 2½ years in oblivion, is predictably sparking feverish hype and anticipation. Just imagine if Tiger wins! That would be the greatest comeback in sports history!
Easy now. None other than Woods himself reminded us all about Ben Hogan, who nearly died after a head-on collision with a Greyhound bus on a foggy Texas night in February 1949.
Hogan fractured his collarbone, pelvis and ankle, survived life-threatening blood clots, spent
several weeks in the hospital and struggled to walk. And he eventually won six more majors, including the Masters twice.
That’s almost impossible to top.
Augusta National is a storied and enchanting venue, in part because Woods and his 21st century cohorts will stroll the same fairways Hogan, Gene Sarazen, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer once did. The game’s history is palpable and powerful on this course.
This year, Woods — fresh off top-five finishes in his past two starts — arrives as the most tantalizing story line in a Masters bubbling with intrigue. Can Justin Thomas extend his rise to prominence? Will Rory McIlroy complete the career Grand Slam? Does Phil Mickelson have a chance at age 47?
And the most popular question, of course: Who will win? Golf remains relentlessly unpredictable, so we’ll provide a guide to the abundant possibilities.
Five players who could win: McIlroy: He hits the ball far and high, valuable assets on approach shots into Augusta’s wicked greens. McIlroy also owns a dust-the-field gear not seen since Woods in his prime. Jordan Spieth: The boy wonder mysteriously lost his putting touch this season, but he seems back on track. And his brief Masters history is striking: tie for second, win, tie for second, tie for 11th. “This course requires a child-like fearlessness and an adult genius,” Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee said, creatively and accurately. “That absolutely sums up Jordan Spieth.” Jon Rahm: He owns the ideal blend of power and touch, typically prerequisites at Augusta National. Rahm will win the Masters one day. Why not now? Matt Kuchar: This might be a stretch, because Kuchar doesn’t close well. He also has three top-five finishes at Augusta in the past six years. Alex Noren: The Masters occasionally produces an unheralded champ — see Trevor Immelman and Danny Willett. Noren, ranked 15th in the world but unknown to casual fans, has played superbly in 2018.
Five players who won’t win: Woods: No player in his 40s has won the Masters since Mark O’Meara in 1998. Woods, at 42, figures to contend, but winning is too much to expect this early in his comeback. Mickelson: See above. Mickelson turns 48 in June. He’s enormously entertaining and he undoubtedly will hit a few mind-blowing shots at Augusta. But he won’t win. Dustin Johnson: He’s probably the world’s best driver, with an extraordinary blend of power and accuracy. But he usually gets in his own way in majors, at some point. Sergio Garcia: Two straight Masters triumphs, after all those years of anguish in majors? No way. Rickie Fowler: Every time he’s poised for a breakthrough, he takes a step back. Fowler’s scoring average for his past four final rounds on tour: 73.8. Augusta’s women’s event
Nice to see Masters officials, stuck in their Old South ways for so long, show progressive leadership.
That started with previous Chairman Billy Payne and continued Wednesday with his successor, Fred Ridley, who announced the inaugural Augusta National Women’s Amateur Championship will be held in April 2019. Seventy-two players will compete over 54 holes, with the final round held at Augusta National on the Saturday before the Masters. The first two rounds will be played at Champions Retreat GC in Augusta.
The tournament could include a distinct Bay Area flavor, given its plan to lean heavily on the women’s world amateur ranking in determining the field. Three players with local ties — Albane Valenzuela (No. 4) and Andrea Lee (5) of Stanford, plus 15-year-old Lucy Li (No. 10) of Redwood City — are in the top 10.
Li, who won her age division in the Drive, Chip & Putt Championship at Augusta National in 2014, said by email, “I’m very excited to be able to go back, and get to actually play on such a historical and prestigious golf course. I think this is an incredible opportunity and huge step forward for women’s golf.”
One other cool twist: The winners of six designated amateur events automatically land a spot in the Augusta field. This includes the U.S. Girls’ Junior at Poppy Hills in July. Ron Kroichick is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: rkroichick@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @ronkroichick