Nation debates the impact of ex-president’s jailing

RIO DE JANEIRO — With former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva behind bars, the people of Latin America’s largest nation are pondering how October’s presidential election will be affected by the jailing of the poll front-runner.

Questions and confusion about his future come as Brazil remains deeply divided over his conviction, whether he should be allowed to run and whether the sprawling “Car Wash” corruption investigation that has ensnared many in the country’s political and business elite has gone too far.

Three weeks have passed since da Silva began his 12-year sentence for a corruption conviction, yet leaders of his leftist Workers’ Party still insist the once widely popular leader will be on the ballot as their candidate.

Though there is a narrow path by which that could happen, legal and political experts say it is unlikely. To get on the ballot, da Silva would need an avalanche of favorable legal decisions in a justice system that is notoriously slow.

Yet there seems a large possibility that da Silva, who is called Lula by many Brazilians, could get out of prison within the next several months. That is because Supreme Federal Tribunal justices who recently denied his request to remain free while appealing his conviction are rethinking their interpretation of when a person convicted of a crime should be forced to start serving a sentence.

“I could see a situation where Lula could be at home during the presidential elections, but not on the ballot,” said Mauricio Santoro, a professor of international relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro.

Either way, da Silva would likely have a big influence in the vote.

A Datafolha institute poll released April 15 said at least 30 percent of voters would back da Silva, double the support for the closest contender, Congressman Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who speaks nostalgically about the country’s 1964-1985 dictatorship. If da Silva is barred from running, two-thirds of his supporters said they would vote for whomever he endorsed.