Joust for No. 2 in governor’s race to be on display

“Newsom will be the punching bag.”

David McCuan, political science professor

For voters just starting to pay attention to the California governor’s race, Tuesday’s debate among the top six candidates offers a chance to catch up fast.

The 90-minute debate, being televised live from San Jose starting at 6:30 p.m., will probably be the last chance to see the four Democrats and two Republicans share a stage before the June 5 primary. The top two primary finishers, regardless of which party they belong to, will advance to the general election in November.

On Tuesday, every candidate not named Gavin Newsom will share a common mission: trying to close the gap on the Democratic lieutenant governor, who leads in both the polls and in fundraising.

“Newsom will be the punching bag,” said David McCuan, a professor of political science at Sonoma State University. “At this point, the race is all about who will be the alternative to Newsom.”

Attacks will be flying in other directions, too. Republicans John Cox and Travis Allen are likely to beat each other up in hopes of winning over enough GOP voters to qualify for the runoff. Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa might make a play for Republicans as well, trying to persuade them he has a better chance of beating Newsom in November than any GOP candidate.

Democrats John Chiang and Delaine Eastin, lagging in the polls, know this is their best chance to catch voters’ eyes. It

may take an unusual confluence of circumstances to make that happen.

The debate, moderated by “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd, will be aired live on NBC Bay Area, Telemundo 48 and KQED-FM. Here’s a rundown on the candidates and their likely strategies:

Travis Allen, Republican:

What he wants to talk about: The lone candidate to vote for President Trump in 2016, the Orange County assemblyman not only wants to repeal California’s sanctuary state laws, he says Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf “should be arrested” for issuing a public warning about federal immigration raids. He wants to repeal the state’s gas tax increase and thinks single-payer health care “will bankrupt California.”

His target: He has to take on Cox, his fellow Republican, in hopes of unifying outnumbered GOP voters behind him. With far less money in the bank than the wealthy San Diego County businessman, Allen can’t afford a TV ad campaign to introduce himself to voters. He will no doubt mention that Cox voted for Libertarian Gary Johnson over Trump. Also look for him to point out that Cox has put $4

million of his own money into the race to try to “buy the election.”

It’s a good night if: He puts doubt in Republican voters’ minds about Cox being a true conservative. Or if “Gavin Newsom or Antonio Villaraigosa engages in a full-scale war with him. That would elevate his status among Republicans,” said John Thomas, a GOP consultant.

John Chiang, Democrat:

What he wants to talk about: Chiang, the state treasurer, will portray himself as someone who is just as progressive as Newsom but more measured when it comes to spending. He supports singlepayer health care in concept, but is skeptical about moving forward on it without a reliable funding source.

His target: Probably nobody. “His style is not to be an attack dog. In the past, all he’s landed are glancing blows,” McCuan said. “He’s a technocrat with a style that is much less combative.” If one of the Republicans starts attacking Newsom or Villaraigosa for their decade-old sexual affairs during their respective stints as San Francisco and Los Angeles mayor — as one independent expenditure group supporting Cox has done in TV ads — Chiang could emerge as a more sober choice to left-leaning voters.

It’s a good night if: “All of the Democrats spontaneously combust,” Thomas said. “Seriously, I don’t know what the path forward is for him to win unless one of the (Democrats) falters.”

John Cox, Republican:

What he wants to talk about: Cox, who has never held public office but has run for it five times, will stress his 40 years as a businessman and rail about how “all of these politicians” are part of a corrupt system. He will tout his support of the campaign to repeal the gas-tax increase and his opposition to sanctuary laws.

His target: Allen, for starters, to try to consolidate his support among Republicans. He will portray himself as the more “mature” GOP choice. And he will probably go after Newsom, to show he can stand toe to toe with the front-runner.

It’s a good night if: “He doesn’t raise his negative” perceptions, McCuan said. “He has to let Republicans see that he can be a viable alternative to

Newsom.”

Delaine Eastin, Democrat:

What she wants to talk about: Increasing funding for public education has been the driving force of the former state schools chief ’s campaign. She will also stake out the most progressive positions among the candidates. She wants to change Proposition 13 when it comes to reassessing commercial property, and supports single-payer health care.

Her target: Trump. She hasn’t attacked her fellow Democrats in other debates. However, if the conversation steers toward the #MeToo movement, it will be interesting to see if Eastin — the only woman on the stage — weighs in against Newsom for his consensual affair with a staffer during his time as mayor.

It’s a good night if: There is a long, substantive discussion of education policy, and if Eastin also gets to talk about the #MeToo movement.

Gavin Newsom, Democrat:

What he wants to talk about: Soothing statements about the future and his vision, to avoid being dragged into any controversy that could hurt his front-runner status. He’ll talk about how he wants to make homelessness a greater priority and his support for singlepayer health care. He will also tout his plan to build 3.5 million homes in California by 2025, which would be an unprecedented development boom.

His target: Trump and other “divisive” political leaders. While “everybody is going to dog-pile on him, he shouldn’t respond,” Thomas said.

It’s a good night if: “He makes no unforced errors” and gets out of the room unblemished, Thomas said. It is not a good night if the conversation lingers on his affair or his decade-old battle with alcohol, which he said ended years ago.

Antonio Villaraigosa, Democrat:

What he wants to talk about: The former Los Angeles mayor will talk about wealth disparity in a state where 1 in every 5 residents lives in poverty, and say that he — not the wealthy Newsom — is best suited to speak for the poor. And he will tout himself as a problem-solver who knows how Sacramento works from his days as Assembly speaker.

His target: It’s a tough call. Some polls have him running near Cox for second place, and Villaraigosa may try to win over GOP voters who figure no Republican can get elected governor. But he also needs to reassure Democrats that he’s at least as liberal as Newsom.

It’s a good night if: “Travis Allen and John Cox start cannibalizing each other,” Thomas said, and Villaraigosa begins to look good to moderate Republicans.