Behind those crime statistics
Four years ago California voters backed a controversial idea: Lowering penalties on theft and drug crimes would empty jails and save money. But critics feared looser standards would prompt a crime surge as lawbreakers took advantage. Since the passage of Proposition 47 in 2014, the two sides have battled over the effects, leaving the public to wonder about the ballot measure’s impact. A balanced look is now at hand via a study from the Public Policy Institute of California, a respected think tank. The results give both supporters and doubters substance for their arguments, but the overall picture indicates Prop. 47 hasn’t led to a crime wave. In addition, jail populations are down, which saves money, and recidivism is lessening.
Car owners in San Francisco and elsewhere may have a problem with this benign verdict. The study found that break-ins jumped from 16,000 to 17,000 per month statewide before Prop. 47 to 19,000 to 20,000 two years later. San Francisco became an epicenter for the broken-glass offense with 31,000 breakins, attributed to gangs. But there’s no boost in the overall crime rate, the study found. Burglary and shoplifting, two categories included in Prop. 47, increased briefly and then tailed off to pre-ballot-measure levels. Reducing nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors hasn’t made California less safe. San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón, a major backer of the measure, noted that the state’s general crime rate remains on a downward trajectory.
A prior study by UC Irvine researchers found a similar initial rise in crime after the measure went into effect. But that analysis said the jump was matched in other states, suggested Prop. 47 wasn’t a difference maker. That’s another strike against doomsayers.
The latest report may dampen the appeal of a possible measure on the November ballot drawn up by a Los Angeles County prosecutors group. It would repeal sections of Prop. 47 and other laws in ways designed to harden penalties and lessen the burdens on police making arrests. The initiative is awaiting approval from state election officials.
Crime remains a troubling worry for many in California. But the studies about Prop. 47 so far suggest that a return to long sentences for nonviolent offenses is not the answer.