Central bankers scramble to stem escalating crisis
ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s central bank took action Monday to free up cash for banks as the country grapples with a currency crisis sparked by concerns over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic policies and a trade and diplomatic dispute with the United States.
The Turkish lira has nosedived over the past week, accelerating a months-long decline, and tumbled another 7 percent on Monday as the central bank’s measures failed to restore market confidence.
Investors are worried about a confluence of factors: the country’s reliance on foreign loans that may stop flowing as interest rates rise in other economies, like the U.S.; Erdogan’s insistence that the central bank not raise interest rates, as most independent analysts say it should; and a spat with the U.S. that has led to sanctions and the fear of greater isolation from longtime allies in the West.
“Turkey is faced with an economic siege,” Erdogan said Monday. “We are taking the necessary steps against these attacks and will continue to do so.”
He has threatened to seek new alliances — a veiled hint at closer ties with Russia — and warned of drastic measures if businesses withdraw foreign currency from banks.
Erdogan also ruled out the possibility of higher interest rates, as they can slow economic growth. But independent analysts say higher rates are needed urgently to stabilize the currency and Erdogan’s hard line is one of the reasons investors are worrying.
Erdogan won a second term in office in June under a new system of government that gives him sweeping powers. He has used his new authority to put pressure on the central bank to not raise rates.
On Monday, the central bank announced a series of measures to “provide all the liquidity the banks need” — but offered no hint of a rate increase. The moves are meant to grease the financial system, ease worries about trouble at banks and keep them providing loans to people and businesses.
In times of high uncertainty, banks tend to shy away from lending to each other. A socalled credit crunch, a lack of daily liquidity, can cause a bank to collapse.
Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon, said the central bank’s measures are unlikely to be enough. In the absence of a decisive rate increase, he said, “it is ... hard to look at these announcements as being anything more than temporary calming measures, rather than solutions to the problems at hand.”
The lira has now dropped some 45 percent this year.
The country’s economic trouble has been heightened by a dispute with the U.S. that has centered on the continued detention of an American pastor who is on trial for espionage and terror-related charges. The U.S. has responded by slapping financial sanctions on two ministers and later doubled steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Monday that the United States would not achieve aims by exerting pressure and imposing sanctions on Turkey.