Quake alert that goes unnoticed is a success
The moment that everyone was waiting for — the big earthquake alert — came shortly after 11 a.m. Monday on a BART train heading from Oakland to Berkeley, and nobody noticed a thing.
The train almost imperceptibly slowed from 55 miles per hour to 27 mph halfway between the MacArthur and Downtown Berkeley stations, eliciting hardly a murmur from the assorted politicians and officials gathered for what was supposed to be the momentous unveiling of California’s earthquake warning system, known as ShakeAlert.
“That’s the way we want it to happen,” said Robert DeGroot, a staff scientist for the U.S. Geological Survey, who has spent
years helping design a seamless automated alert system that reduces the chances of panic or pandemonium.
The rollout of the earthquake alert system, which seismologists say is the most sophisticated in the world, may not have inspired any wow moments, but it did provoke breathless speeches.
“To be able to actually identify and let someone know that shaking will begin in 30 seconds, in 20 seconds or in 5 seconds, whatever it is, is incredible,” said state Sen. Jerry Hill, D-San Mateo, as he stood in the Downtown Berkeley BART Station following the demonstration. “This is not just a game changer. It’s a lifesaver.”
The ShakeAlert 2.0 system was designed by the USGS and the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory to warn transit systems, utilities, businesses and millions of people in California, Oregon and Washington about impending temblors.
The idea is to set up the alert, like the one BART has developed, so that trains can be slowed or stopped, pipelines and power lines can be shut down, firehouse doors can be opened, and people can have time to dive under a desk before the shaking begins.
ShakeAlert 2.0 uses a network of sensors to tap into the seismic waves that course through the ground when an earthquake strikes. It can pinpoint the slower-moving waves that cause dangerous groundshaking — destroying buildings and taking lives — and broadcast warnings anywhere from a few seconds to a minute in advance.
It is especially important in the Bay Area, where numerous earthquake faults, including the San Andreas and Hayward faults, run directly below urban areas.
BART, PG&E, Chevron and 10 water districts in the Pacific Northwest have been testing the system for the past six years, but a lack of money has delayed implementation. The rollout Monday was the first phase of what seismologists hope will eventually be a sprawling three-state warning system.
“In the coming months more applications will start making use of ShakeAlert,” said Richard Allen, the director of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory. “Places like schools and hospitals will start to get the alerts, water distribution facilities will start to use the alerts and, of course, eventually the goal is that everybody gets the alerts.”
Allen, who helped develop the system, said the detection technology is so advanced that it not only locates earthquakes but instantly creates a computer map of the likely distribution of ground shaking. That will give emergency workers the information they need to alert specific regions where the most shaking is expected.
He said it can also recognize very large magnitude earthquakes and map out the portion of the fault that is rupturing.
The problem, Allen said, is the lack of distribution and funding. He hopes tech companies will develop applications and automated devices that can be used by businesses, homeowners and others. The goal is for quake alerts to eventually reach every smartphone, he said.
The lack of an earthquake warning system has long bothered seismologists in California, especially after Mexico City utilized a warning system during a major earthquake in September 2017 and twice just before quakes in February.
The USGS’ more sophisticated system, first developed in 2012, has been imperiled by President Trump’s threat to cut federal funding, but California legislators have so far managed to fight off budget cuts. The program has received more than $71 million in state and federal funding over the past two years, but officials say more money is needed.
Although California is close to having all the sensors it needs, only about half of the 1,675 seismic stations required to complete the system and provide adequate coverage in all three states are in place. As of now, the best coverage is in the urban areas of San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland and Seattle.
“It is only a matter of when the big one is coming,” said Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf. “Those of us who remember the devastation and loss of life from the Loma Prieta and the Northridge earthquakes know that the impacts of an earthquake do not care who you are or how you voted. It is time that we put aside these types of divisions and get serious about fixing and strengthening our infrastructure . ... It’s not just that we need to be warned — we need to have infrastructure that can withstand these shocks.”
“Places like schools and hospitals will start to get the alerts, water distribution facilities will start to use the alerts, and, of course, eventually the goal is that everybody gets the alerts.” Richard Allen, director of the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory