Study: California at risk of undercount in census

California is vulnerable to an undercount in the 2020 census that could overlook more than 1.6 million people and cost the state one of its seats in the House of Representatives, a new study has found.

Inadequate funding, fears of privacy violations, a new and largely untested online system, and worry among immigrant communities have prompted “major concerns about the accuracy of the 2020 census,” says the report from the nonprofit Public Policy Institute of California.

California’s particular demographic makeup means that these issues hold added weight. Three in 4 Californians belong to one or more often-undercounted populations, including children, young men, Latinos, African Americans and renters, according to the report.

Eric McGhee, an author of the study, says the risk to an accurate count in California is exacerbated by a rising national sentiment that is “opposed to immigration,” provoking fear among immigrant communities. Such anxiety has been fueled by the Trump administration’s plan to add a question about U.S. citizenship to the 2020 census for the first time since 1950.

Critics see the administration’s decision as a ploy to discourage immigrants’ participation in the census, particularly among those who fear it could lead to their deportation. California and several other states have sued to block the Census Bureau from adding the citizenship question, as have several California cities.

“It’s going to be hard to say, ‘Don’t answer the door to any federal employee who comes knocking, unless it’s a census worker,’ ” McGhee said. “That’s a tough message to communicate.”

California is home to more than 10 million immigrants, about onefourth of the country’s foreign-born population and more than any other state. As a result, depressed census response rates from immigrants would have an outsized impact in California.

The once-per-decade survey determines both To sign up for The Chronicle’s Political Punch newsletter, go to the size of California’s congressional delegation and shapes how congressional and state legislative boundaries are drawn within the state.

So while the Public Policy Institute predicts that California’s actual population growth should put the state on track to keep its 53 seats in the House, an inaccurate reading could knock the total down to 52. Also, because an undercount could disproportionately miss people in particular populations, including Latinos, African Americans, renters, young children and immigrants, poorer areas could lose political strength to areas that are more affluent and have less racial and ethnic diversity, the institute’s report said.

McGhee explained that the institute’s predictions for an undercount were based on the 1990 census, widely considered a “misfire.” The 1990 national survey logged a net undercount of more than 4 million people. The flawed data cost California $2 billion in federal funds over the ensuing decade as well as an additional House seat, according to the Legislature’s fiscal analyst.

But with more than a year before the 2020 census, McGhee stressed that with adequate investment in the census, there is still time to correct the issues highlighted in the report. This year’s state budget includes $90.3 million for census research.

“If you put in a good effort ... we could undo some of the problems that we’ve identified,” McGhee said.

“California should absolutely do everything it can to encourage a high-quality census,” particularly for those most likely to be overlooked, McGhee said. “They deserve to be counted.”