Feinstein, Newsom maintain ‘solid’ leads
Democrats Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein appear to be coasting to victory on Nov. 6, carrying double-digit leads in their respective races for governor and U.S. Senate, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.
“These are solid leads, with no significant movement taking place,” said Mark Baldassare, the institute’s president and director of the poll.
The survey found Newsom, the lieutenant governor and former San Francisco mayor, leading Republican John Cox, a San Diego-area businessman, 49 to 38 percent among likely voters, only a slight shift from the 51- to 39-percent margin found in the institute’s last poll, in September.
Feinstein, a former San Francisco mayor seeking her fifth full Senate term, was beating a fellow Democrat, Los Angeles state Sen. Kevin de León, 43 to 27 percent, the poll said.
Those numbers probably understate Fein-
stein’s lead, Baldassare said, because more than half the Republicans surveyed said they wouldn’t vote for either Democrat. Take them out of the survey, and Feinstein’s lead becomes 55 to 35 percent.
The poll numbers reflect what’s been a quiet election season in California, at least for the candidates at the top of the ticket.
“Nothing has happened to date that’s been a game changer for either candidate,” Baldassare said.
The poll found Newsom with strong support in both the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, the two largest — and most heavily Democratic — parts of the state. Cox held a 50- to 41-percent lead in the Inland Empire counties of Riverside and San Bernardino, but trailed the lieutenant governor everywhere else.
Newsom also was steamrolling Cox among Latino voters, 65 to 23 percent.
Cox’s 38 percent support among likely voters was virtually identical to the 39 percent statewide approval rating for President Trump, the poll found. That isn’t a good place to be in a state that overwhelmingly backed Democrat Hillary Clinton over Trump for president in 2016.
“Nine out of 10 people who approve of President Trump are voting for Cox,” Baldassare said. “That’s his base and may be his ceiling.”
Feinstein’s numbers show just how tough it is to defeat a popular incumbent who is known by almost every voter in California, Baldassare said. Feinstein had the support of two-thirds of Democratic voters and was beating de León in every part of the state and with every ethnic group. She even held a 45- to 34-percent advantage among Latinos.
Ironically for a progressive candidate who argues that Feinstein is too moderate for California, de León led her among Republicans, 28 to 14 percent.
“His base among Republicans are voters who don’t like Feinstein,” Baldassare said.
Other parts of the poll highlight just how strongly Democratic — and anti-Trump — California has become.
In a generic congressional election, for example, 55 percent of likely voters said they would support a Democratic candidate, versus 37 percent who would back a Republican. In 11 congressional districts with competitive races Nov. 6 — nine Republican and two Democratic — the GOP had a 49- to 44-percent lead in generic contests.
“Most of those are Republican districts, which is why it’s so remarkable that the races would be so close,” Baldassare said.
The widespread dislike of Trump leaks over to questions about the country’s mood. While 53 percent of likely voters were convinced good financial times are ahead, 56 percent said the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Even Democrats “can’t disagree with where the economy is today, although they might disagree over how we got there,” Baldassare said. “But there’s real uneasiness about where the country is going, and that’s wrapped up in a partisan debate.”
The telephone poll was taken from Oct. 12-21 and surveyed 1,704 California adults, including 989 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.