Central Valley House race has Bay Area focus
MANTECA, San Joaquin County — Many Democrats cast the battle for the House as a referendum on President Trump. In a Central Valley district where voters will help determine who runs Congress, the race has become a referendum on the Bay Area.
Hundreds of people from the Bay Area have traveled over the Altamont Pass and down Highway 99 to campaign for Democrat Josh Harder, drawn by the possibility of knocking off a Republican who voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act and to pass Trump’s tax plan. Bay
Area residents have contributed more than $1 million to defeat Rep. Jeff Denham, who first rode to office with the help of the Tea Party wave in 2010.
Denham tells voters that Harder, who lived for several months in San Francisco before moving back to his hometown of Turlock last year, is infected with “Bay Area values.” He says “Bay Area Harder,” a 32-year-old venture capitalist, threatens “the valley’s way of life.”
Denham’s Bay Area focus is so intense that he wouldn’t acknowledge at a recent debate that climate change was partly caused by humans, saying, “We shouldn’t have to pay for the Bay Area’s dirty air.” When pressed whether he believed climate change is man-made, Denham said it is “Bay Areamade.”
Polls say the race is a toss-up. It is one of seven GOPheld seats in California that Democrats think they can flip because Hillary Clinton won the districts in 2016. If the party can net 23 seats on Nov. 6, Democrats will control the House.
But the 10th Congressional District is still a predominantly conservative place. A recent Berkeley IGS Poll found that 43 percent of likely voters surveyed there back Trump, a much higher total than statewide. Democrats have focused on Denham for years — he even survived a recall effort while he was in the state Senate — but have never beaten him.
But this year might be different, in part because Bay Area Democrats are fighting back. Last weekend, 369 volunteers for Harder, many of them Bay Area day-trippers, campaigned for the challenger in Turlock, which is also Denham’s home.
“We don’t live in a district that has a contested congressional race, so we wanted to come to a place where we could effect change,” said Tim Blasko, who traveled from Oakland to canvass for Harder.
Denham, 51, dismisses what Democrats tout as their grassroots energy. He boasted that all his volunteers are from his district.
“There’s a big difference between busing people in from Berkeley and San Francisco and Oakland,” Denham said as he encouraged volunteers making calls at a campaign office in unincorporated Banta, a small San Joaquin County town east of Tracy.
The candidates’ tussle over “who’s more Central Valley” hints at underlying concerns about change in a district that ranges from Tracy, which has become a Bay Area exurb, through Modesto and the almond farms of Stanislaus County.
Farmers worry about having enough water and how other nations’ retaliation for Trump’s tariffs are affecting crop prices. Other voters are concerned about costly health care in a region where 1 in 5 people lives in poverty. Longtime residents complain about rising housing prices that are being driven, in part, by newcomers fleeing the expensive Bay Area.
For decades, Republicans have invoked “San Francisco values” to scare heartland voters. But Denham’s attacks resonate with constituents who actually know the city.
“We don’t need to become another San Francisco, where liberal politics have turned it into a dump,” said Tony Sylvester, a retired Manteca resident
who backs Denham and regularly visits the city. “San Francisco now has its own Poop Patrol.
Although Bay Area-style sprawl has spread to the district’s cities, agriculture is still a political force. Farm interests are largely behind Denham, who was one of five Central Valley Republicans who stood beside Trump this month when he signed a presidential memo to cut “regulatory burdens” to deliver more water to farmers.
Bruce Blodgett, executive director of the Stanislaus County Farm Bureau, which endorsed Denham, said, “He’s not just a passive voice but an active voice when it comes to water issues.”
Tony Coit said Denham helped save his family farm last year. In February 2017, the San Joaquin River breached a levee near the farm in Manteca. As farmers raced to help, Coit said, he looked up “and saw Jeff Denham standing on top of the levee.” The congressman called the Army Corps of Engineers, and help arrived within hours.
“Sure, it’s easy to say something bad about someone on TV, but he was out there with us, helping us,” Coit said.
But when Harder accuses Denham of putting his allegiance to Trump before the district’s interests, it’s a persuasive line for almond grower Lupe Villarreal.
Denham joined other valley Republicans in writing a letter to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue explaining how Trump’s tariff wars were damaging the region.
“So what? It’s a letter. I can do that,” said Villarreal, who has seen the overseas price of his almonds rise 25 percent, cutting into his sales. “If he had been checking him in some sort of way, that would have meant something, but he hasn’t been.”
Others blast Denham for voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act after Republicans included $8 billion to create a high-risk pool providing coverage for those with pre-existing conditions, an amount analysts said wouldn’t help much.
And while Denham has talked for years about immigration reform — a major issue in a district where 30 percent of residents are Latino and farmers turn a blind eye to undocumented workers — he’s been unable to persuade his party to go along. Although Republicans have controlled Congress and the White House for nearly two years, Denham said he is “disappointed in both parties.”
That’s not good enough for some.
“Jeff does what Trump wants him to do. He’s not a man of the valley. He’s a man of the Republican Party,” said Pete Warner, an Oakdale veterinarian who supports Harder. “That’s the difference about Josh. He may be new, but he’s not beholden to anyone.”
Until recently, Harder wasn’t beholden to voting. He didn’t vote in 17 of the last 20 elections before he decided to run for office last year.
That hasn’t stopped others from supporting him. Harder raised $6 million — $1.3 million from the Bay Area — through Sept. 30, compared with $4.1 million for Denham. Harder, however, raised only 1 percent of his campaign contributions from the district, compared with 18 percent for Denham, according to campaign finance records.
From July 21 to last weekend, 1,035 canvassers from Swing Left San Francisco, a local outpost of the organization that directs progressives to the closest swing district, knocked on 24,526 doors in the district.
Harder acknowledges that much of his backing comes from outsiders but insisted that “we’re running a Central Valley race on Central Valley issues.”
Although Denham calls him a Bay Area plant, Harder’s roots extend five generations in the valley. After graduating from Modesto High School, he won a scholarship to attend Stanford, went to Harvard Business School and spent three years at Bessemer Venture Partners in Menlo Park. He often casts his venture capital experience as a time when he “focused on the problem of economic opportunity” by helping small businesses.
He said he decided to run because his boyhood district was being “deeply misrepresented” by a “congressman who votes with Trump 98 percent” of the time.
Harder may have money and volunteer power, but he’s not nearly as well known in the Central Valley as Denham. His Bay Area volunteers are trying to turn out Millennials and Latinos, but there may not be enough time to introduce him to voters like Soledad Lara.
She said she liked his TV commercials that said he would focus on the economic future of the valley. Two years ago, the 21-year-old could rent a room in Modesto for $330 a month. Now, a room like that costs $700.
But when canvassers knocked on her door last weekend, she still hadn’t registered to vote.
Asked Lara: “Is there enough time?”
Harder’s campaign might be wondering the same thing.