GOP voters come out strong in early mail-in returns for House races.

Early mail-in returns show strong response

With the midterm elections just days away, there’s little indication that California is seeing a “blue wave” of Democratic votes, at least in the early returns of vote-by-mail ballots — and in some key races that will help determine control of the House, Republican voter response has been strong.

There are still a lot more ballots to come in, cautioned Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which supplies voter information to a variety of political campaigns. But so far, according to a mail ballot tracker he runs, Republican votes are keeping pace with the number of Democratic ballots.

“Looking at the comparable numbers, the statewide mail ballot returns at this point are running about 40 percent higher than the primary, 1.7 million to 1.2 million,” he said.

Interest is definitely high in the Republicanheld congressional districts that Democrats are looking to flip in their quest to gain the 23 seats

they need to take back control of the House.

For example, in Orange County’s 45th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Mimi Walters is running against Democrat Katie Porter, the vote-by-mail return by the weekend was almost double what it was at the same point in the June primary, Mitchell said. In the 48th district, where GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa (Orange County) is being challenged by Democrat Harley Rouda, the number of mail-in ballots was up 84 percent.

In the Central Valley’s 10th district, there was a 69 percent jump in mailin ballots from voters deciding between Republican Rep. Jeff Denham and Democrat Josh Harder.

But the boost might not be helping Democrats. In the Walters versus Porter race, for example, Democrats made up 31 percent of those who received mail ballots, while Republicans made up 37 percent. As of Monday, however, the total number of ballots coming back favored Republicans, 45 percent to 31 percent. The numbers were similarly lopsided in Rohrabacher’s district, while in the Denham versus Harder race, Democratic and Republican returns were about even.

That’s not really a surprise, Mitchell said, since the first ballot returns typically skew toward Republicans.

“Traditionally, these early returns represent voters who are homeowners, more affluent and more white,” he said. “These are people who vote in every election.”

Ultimately, about twothirds of Californians will cast their votes by mail, if the primary is any guide.

While Democrats like billionaire investor Tom Steyer have put millions of dollars into efforts to bring young people out to vote in this year’s midterm elections, there’s little sign that’s working in California, at least so far.

“One of the most striking statistics is that voters 18 to 34 and those 65 and older each make up about a quarter of California’s registered voters,” Mitchell said. But in the early mail voting returns, he said, “seniors make up about half of those ballots, while younger voters are less than 1 in 10.”

In the Orange County district represented by retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce of Fullerton, Republican Young Kim is locked in a tight battle with Democrat Gil Cisneros. But only 9 percent of the returned ballots there come from voters ages 18-34, who tend to vote Democratic. That’s compared to the 48 percent from seniors, who are more likely to back Republicans.

“Maybe some of it is young voters who don’t know where they keep the stamps, but if you believe the hype about the blue wave, we should start to see some changes” as election day approaches, Mitchell said.

The late ballots and those turned in on election day tend to be from Democratic voters, but there has to be a significant uptick to flip California districts that Republicans, in many cases, have held for decades.

And a surge in Democratic turnout, both in mail ballots and at the polls, may not be enough to oust GOP officeholders if Republicans can match that enthusiasm.

“You have to see Democrats do better in those targeted seats to win,” Mitchell said. “If both parties are doing better, that might not be good enough for Democrats.”