Election’s huge role in state’s direction
Voters to decide priorities, chart path for both parties
President Trump and national battles for control of Congress are grabbing most of the headlines, but Tuesday’s election has plenty of significance for the future of politics in California as well.
Efforts by Democrats to regain their Republican-proof two-thirds majority in the state Senate, along with contests that will test the traditional power of labor and old-style political leaders, provide lots to look for as Californians cast their ballots.
The midterm elections will be a gauge of how quickly the state is changing, said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University.
He noted that Democrats now largely control coastal cities and that Republicans still hold sway in more lightly populated inland areas. “The new battles are going to be in the exurbs,” he said — places that used to be rural but are
being encroached upon by development, such as Cloverdale in far northern Sonoma County and El Dorado Hills in the Sierra foothills east of Sacramento.
“There’s a lot happening below the radar,” McCuan added.
Here are some things to look for Tuesday that could determine California’s political direction in years to come. Legislature battle: Whether Democrats can earn the coveted supermajority prize will probably be determined by the outcome in a Senate district that runs from Salinas to growing Central Valley cities including Merced and Madera.
Running for the open seat are Assemblywoman Anna Caballero, a Democrat from Salinas, and Madera County Supervisor Robert Poythress, a Republican. If Caballero succeeds termed-out GOP Sen. Anthony Cannella, that would give Democrats the one additional seat they need to regain the two-thirds supermajority that enables them to pass virtually any legislation without GOP help.
Another exurban district that could give Democrats that seat: Senate District 14 stretching from Fresno to Bakersfield, where GOP incumbent Andy Vidak of Hanford (Kings County) is facing a stiff challenge from Sanger Councilwoman Melissa Hurtado, a Democrat.
Democrats already have a supermajority in the Assembly. If they hold all their current seats, they will add to it in a San Diego County seat being vacated by Assemblyman Rocky Chavez. Both candidates for the job are Democrats.
In addition, Democrats are making a strong push in the East Bay’s 16th District, where Assemblywoman Catharine Baker, R-San Ramon, is being challenged by Democrat Rebecca Bauer-Kahan of Orinda. Independent power: While Republicans have little chance in any of California’s statewide elections, the picture is brighter for independent candidate Steve Poizner. Poizner, a hightech businessman, won the state insurance commissioner’s job as a Republican in 2006, and is looking to take his office back as a no-party-preference candidate.
Independent voters are now California’s second-largest “party,” leading the third-place Republicans in registration by 27.5 percent to 24 percent. But no independent candidate has ever been elected to statewide office.
Poizner, who is going against Democratic state Sen. Ricardo Lara of Bell Gardens (Los Angeles County) for the job, could change that, providing an alternative route for political hopefuls with no party affiliation and Republicans anxious to lose a label that has become toxic in much of California.
But Poizner isn’t your normal independent candidate, said Darry Sragow, a former Democratic strategist who is now the publisher of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which focuses on political races across the state.
Poizner “has already held the job, and that’s a signal to Republicans that he’s held up the Republican banner in the past,” Sragow said. “He’s also a wealthy businessman who can self-finance his campaign, which also makes a difference.”
School leader: While the job of state superintendent of public instruction is ostensibly nonpartisan, since 1995 it’s been held by former Democratic legislators with strong backing from California’s education unions.
That could change this year. While Richmond Assemblyman Tony Thurmond fits that traditional bill, he’s locked in a tight and hugely expensive race with Marshall Tuck, a Democrat who has never held political office and is no favorite of teachers.
Tuck has been an independent educational executive, running charter schools in Los Angeles. Wealthy charter school backers and education reform advocates have put more than $25 million in independent expenditures into his campaign.
Thurmond, a former school board member, is getting plenty of outside money from teachers groups worried that a win by Tuck would not only clear the way for more charter schools in the state, but also lessen the political clout of education unions. Those groups have backed Thurmond with more than $13 million in independent money.
While a Tuck victory would be a pricey embarrassment for teachers, it wouldn’t be a death blow, Sragow said.
“I’m sure the teachers have a backup plan with the Legislature,” he said. “The state superintendent has a bully pulpit, but not much power. It’s a very expensive fight, but if they lose it, policy is still made by the Legislature and the governor.”
Party changes: Tuesday’s results could be a sign of things to come for both parties.
After Trump’s victory in 2016, Democrats targeted GOP congressional seats in Orange County and other places where Republicans have dominated for decades. If those seats flip, it could herald a partisan shift affecting state and local political races for decades.
Democrats have their own concerns, however. In the lieutenant governor’s race, state Sen. Ed Hernandez of West Covina (Los Angeles County) has a Sacramento resume and endorsements from state party leaders, labor and elected officials. In years past, that would have been enough to head off an intraparty fight.
But this year, he faces a tough challenge from another Democrat, Eleni Kounalakis, a former ambassador to Hungary who has never held public office. What she does have is backing from big-name Democrats including former President Barack Obama and Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris, along with the family history as a major party donor and money to help finance her own campaign.
The result “could signal a generational change” for Democrats, said McCuan of Sonoma State University.