Trends will be evident before count begins on the West Coast
The California polls in Tuesday’s midterm elections don’t close until 8 p.m., but state voters will get a good look at the national trends well before the first ballots are tallied here.
Initial returns from other states could be especially revealing, because they will include mail and early voting ballots that are arriving in numbers never before seen, said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University.
“The early voting numbers we’re seeing are huge, especially in states like Georgia, Nevada and Texas,” he said.
The trend may be apparent especially early in the Senate, where Republicans now hold a 51-49 majority. Democrats need to make a net gain of two seats to take control, because Vice President Mike Pence will break any ties in the GOP’s favor.
The easiest way for Democrats to do that is to hold all their seats and flip at least two that are now held by Republicans.
The first look at their chances will come in Indiana, a state Donald Trump won by 19 points in 2016. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly faces for-
mer GOP state Rep. Mike Braun in a contest that’s seen as a toss-up. Returns will start coming in after the state’s polls close at 3 p.m. PST.
At 4 p.m. Pacific time, polls close in most of Florida, and at 4:30 p.m. voting ends in West Virginia. The Senate race in Florida, a perpetual toss-up state, features incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson against GOP Gov. Rick Scott. In West Virginia, a state that backed Trump by 42 points in 2016, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is facing Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.
If Democrats are falling behind in any of those races, Republican chances for holding the Senate skyrocket.
Another Southern contest to watch is the Senate race in Tennessee to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Bob Corker. GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn has led by single digits in most recent polls over Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen. If he pulls an upset, Democrats’ chances for grabbing the Senate would improve substantially. The polls close in Tennessee at 5 p.m. PST.
In the House, Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take control. Races in Kentucky and Virginia could provide an early look at their chances.
Trump won Kentucky’s Sixth District, which covers the Lexington area, by 15 percentage points in 2016. However, Republican Rep. Andy Barr is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired Marine officer. It’s another very early indicator: Polls in the district close at 3 p.m. PST.
In Virginia, where voting ends at 4 p.m. West Coast time, Democrats have mounted stiff efforts against a pair of GOP incumbents. In suburban Richmond, Rep. David Brat faces Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the Seventh District, while Republican Rep. Scott Taylor, an ex-Navy SEAL, squares off against Democrat Elaine Luria, a retired Navy officer, in the Second District, which includes the huge Norfolk Navy base.
If either party sweeps those three races, it could be a long night for the opposition.
For McCuan, the Sonoma State University professor, Pennsylvania is key to Democrats’ chances of taking the House. The state Supreme Court redrew the state’s GOPgerrymandered congressional map to provide much more competitive contests.
“People need to watch Pennsylvania’s Sixth, Seventh and Eighth districts on election night,” since all three of the redrawn districts in the eastern part of the state are Democratic pickup opportunities, he said. The returns there will start coming in after 5 p.m. PST.
The battle for Congress isn’t the only concern Tuesday night. At least 10 contests for Republican-held statehouses are seen as toss-ups, and Democrats would dearly love to have the party’s governors in place when legislatures redraw congressional districts after the 2020 census.
Georgia’s racially charged contest between Democrat Stacey Abrams, who is seeking to become the nation’s first female black governor, and Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp will show whether the political winds are shifting in a Deep South state that
Trump won two years ago. The first returns there will be posted after 4 p.m. Pacific time.
There’s also a hotly contested governor’s race in Florida, where Democrat Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, faces former Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis in a race that’s attracted national attention.
Election night will close in the West, with Democrats seeking to grab GOP-held Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona and Republicans looking to oust Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana and Oregon Gov. Kate Brown. By then, Californians should have a good idea which party will be claiming midterms victory.
But the election probably won’t end Tuesday, especially with seven or more GOP-held congressional seats in play in California. If the races are close, as the polls predict, it will take days or weeks to count all the late-arriving and contested ballots and arrive at a final result.