Democrats’ dominance won’t make ruling easy
Large Assembly majority includes range of agendas
SACRAMENTO — There is not yet a word for the Democratic dominance in the state Assembly. It used to be supermajority, but Democrats eclipsed that two-thirds threshold during last month’s election.
What do you call the Democrats’ threefourths majority that will be sworn in Monday in the 80-member Assembly? Ultra-super majority? Super-duper majority? Or as Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon suggested, gigamajority?
There is one word political insiders warn does not define the influx of Democrats: consensus.
“We didn’t elect 60 Democrats from San Francisco — that’s a little different,” said Assemblyman Phil Ting, D-San Francisco. “You have Democrats from very purple, moderate districts, and they may be more liberal than their Republican predecessors. But I don’t see them radically shifting on many issues. They will continue to reflect their districts.”
That means liberals’ proposals for criminal justice reform, housing production, tenants rights and soaring rents could still face difficult votes during the two-year session that begins Jan. 7.
Moderate Democrats — an unofficial caucus
commonly called “mods” in the state Capitol — often align with business interests and the handful of remaining Republicans to kill policies they say are too costly or too far to the left. Their voting bloc is most powerful in two-thirds votes reserved for taxes, but they have also been able to hold up bills needing a simple majority.
“Just because it’s a one-party state doesn’t mean it gets easier,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant. “In many ways it will be more difficult. Personal agendas and personalities will play a bigger role.”
The Assembly’s Democratic class is already guaranteed to be the largest since 1883. It could hit 61, depending on the outcome of an undecided race in San Diego.
In the Senate, Democrats hold 29 of the 40 seats, enough to give them a supermajority with two votes to spare.
Speaker Rendon, D-Paramount (Los Angeles County), said Democrats stand together on certain core issues such as worker protections and women’s rights.
“Will we have all Democrats going up on every bill? No,” Rendon said. “But we can get our progressive agenda passed. More Democrats makes it easier to get Democratic policies through.”
Among the areas where Democrats have been divided in the past is criminal justice reform.
That was true earlier this year with legislation to overturn the state’s murder accomplice rule, which held accomplices as culpable for felony murder as those who personally committed the crime. Moderate Democrats railed against the bill, calling it a risk to public safety, before joining Republicans in voting against it. The bill narrowly passed and was signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown.
Another bill that moderate Democrats and law enforcement officials opposed did not fare as well. That bill, to toughen the standard on when an officer can legally shoot a suspect, stalled in the Senate without a vote. Its sponsor, Assemblywoman Shirley Weber, D-San Diego, has said she plans to try again with a similar bill next year.
Law enforcement groups are already holding meetings in anticipation of fighting the legislation, according to the California Peace Officers Association.
Bills opposed by law enforcement are tough votes for Democrats from areas where the party has only recently displaced Republican officeholders.
“With the tent being so big right now, you are going to see different groups in the Democratic Party with different priorities,” said Robin Swanson, a Democratic political consultant.
Housing legislation has also led to cleaving in the Democratic Party. Legislative leaders and Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom pledged to prioritize housing in 2019, with lawmakers saying they will take another run at bills that failed last year.
Bills to address rising rents and forced-out tenants have divided many Democrats, particularly legislation to reform the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, a 1995 state law that sharply limits rent controls that cities can impose. A ballot measure that would have scrapped the law was beaten badly in November.
Similar splintering among Democrats occurred in previous attempts to overhaul the Ellis Act, a state law intended to help property owners who no longer want to be in the rental business.
Assemblyman David Chiu, D-San Francisco, said he and other lawmakers are discussing tenants-rights bills for 2019, including proposals to prevent steep rent increases during housing crises and to strengthen just-cause eviction laws.
“These are issues that have not often garnered the support of all of our Democratic colleagues,” Chiu said. “Our hope is this year will be different as the plight of tenants has intensified across the state.”
Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, said he would try again to pass a bill to limit cities’ ability to block large apartment and condominium projects in residential neighborhoods near public transit.
His measure last year, SB827, which became one of the most hotly debated housing bills in the country, died in its first committee hearing — with moderate and liberal Democrats voting against it. Wiener has been working on changes in hopes of making it more palatable to lawmakers this year.
“It’s easy to think it will be easy to pass things, but I don’t think so,” said Kristin Olsen, a former Assembly Republican leader. “The political parties are very factioned, and therefore fractured when it comes to moving policies together. Leadership will have enormous challenges to bring those factions together.”
“With the tent being so big right now, you are going to see different groups in the Democratic Party with different priorities.”
Robin Swanson, Democratic political consultant