Forecasters optimistic rain will arrive within fortnight

Say what you will about Russian interference, it just might get us Northern Californians out of this year’s precarious fire season.

Meteorologists are forecasting that around Nov. 10, a strong jet stream originating from Russia is likely to undercut the dominant highpressure ridge sitting off the coast and provide muchneeded moisture to the West Coast.

“Now the question is, how confident are we?” said Brent Wachter, a fire meteorologist with the North Operations Predictive Service. “Not very. But there’s a glimmer of hope.”

After a chaotic week of high winds blasting wildfires new and old across bonedry Bay Area communities, any flicker of optimism is welcome. And it’s not completely farfetched.

For three days the weather models have shown there might be relief for Northern California’s arid vegetation, which has fed numerous wildfires, including the Kincade Fire, the state’s biggest this year.

After a brief rain in September, a highpressure ridge has set up over the coast, pushing the jet stream up and over us and sending moisture to Canada. That pattern should hold for another week to 10 days, said meteorologist Jan Null.

“But then we’re seeing the first significant drop in the jet stream down over California, and with that brings a cold front and some rain with it, hopefully,” Null said.

It’s unclear whether any rain will make it as far south as the Bay Area. Southern California is not expected to get any relief.

The forecast also shows slower wind patterns, which could help firefighters and prevent preemptive power outages.

The National Weather Service also predicted possible rain around the weekend of Nov. 910.

“We’re trying to be optimistic about it,” said weather service meteorologist Spencer Tangen. “But it’s too early to say with any certainty.”

Typically, fire season ends around the third week of October, Wachter said.

“The last three years we’d get teaser moisture in September, and then the blocking ridge would arrive and dry everything out again,” Wachter said. “We need enough moisture to make the grass grow. Once we get enough greenness, we can knock the fire season down.”

It just may happen if the Russians can deliver around election time.