Outbreak scrambles GOP bid to hold control of Senate
WASHINGTON — Republican control of the U.S. Senate could become another casualty of the coronavirus crisis.
The pandemic has upended 2020 politics — not just for President Trump — and his party increasingly worries that the turmoil has given Democrats fundraising and strategic advantages that put Republicans’ 5347 Senate majority at risk.
Even as Republicans struggle to avoid being dragged down by Trump’s unsteady handling of the COVID19 response, they’re facing an enthusiasm gap, at least among donors, that favors Democrats. Fundraising reports show that Senate Democratic challengers far surpassed their Republican opponents in the first three months of 2020.
“The Senate is absolutely at risk of going Democratic,” said Josh Holmes, a top GOP strategist and confidant of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, RKy. “Democrats are still way ahead when it comes to digital fundraising. It will get worse.”
The effect of the health emergency is visible across the landscape for incumbent Republicans. In Maine, endangered Sen. Susan Collins has turned her reelection ads into public service announcements about health risks and economic aid. In Montana, Sen. Steve Daines is overshadowed in local media by his Democratic opponent, Gov. Steve Bullock, who leads the state’s coronavirus relief effort.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of four seats if Republicans keep the White House, but three seats if they oust Trump and the Democratic vice president becomes the Senate tiebreaker.
The balance of power hinges on four states with the most vulnerable Republicans up for reelection: Maine, North Carolina, Colorado and Arizona. Because Democrats are likely to lose one of their own seats — Democrat Doug Jones is a long shot in deep red Alabama — they would have to win all four of those Republicanheld seats, or offset losses with wins elsewhere. That’s a tall order, but less so than a year ago. In mid-April 2019, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated just two of those races — in Arizona and Colorado — as tossups. Now all four are.
But Democrats have put other states into play. In Montana, a recent poll gave Bullock a lead for the first time.
Besides the coronavirus, Republicans are at the mercy of another force beyond their control: a mercurial and erratic president.
“Two months ago, there was a lot of confidence” about the Senate, said Alex Conant, a GOP strategist. “Now, no one knows what the world is going to look like in six months. How Trump handles the crisis will determine the outcome.”