Surge: As California posts its highest daily virus death toll, politicians and health experts debate what to do.
Some experts urge reclosing — others want to stay course
As California posted its highest COVID19 daily death toll of 250 and case counts soared beyond those of other states, politicians and public health experts turned Thursday to the next logical question: What to do about it?
Acknowledging that there is no formula for eradicating the coronavirus, some recommended staying the course. Others suggested finetuning the state’s approach based on what new data reveal. And at least one state lawmaker is urging Gov. Gavin Newsom to tightly shut down the economy amid the alarming and deadly surge.
“It’s clear that we have lost control of the coronavirus fight,” state Sen. Steve Glazer, DOrinda, said Thursday at a news conference he called to make his case. “You don’t have to look very far to see it in the numbers.”
The most practical approach to dealing with the relentless virus will likely fall somewhere among those options, health experts generally agreed. They said flipping a switch and shutting the economy down completely is unrealistic.
State and local officials should continue restricting businesses and services that pose the highest risk of infection, much as Newsom is now requiring, said Dr. Art Reingold, an infectious disease expert and professor of epidemiology at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health.
Reingold said it is “unreasonable to close down society” a second time, despite the surging cases and deaths.
“You could argue that closing bars is less of a sacrifice for society than more essential services, obviously with an eye towards schools and what we’re going to do about schools,” Reingold said. “So, instead of just saying, ‘We’re closing everything down,’ you need to be a little more nuanced than that.”
For the second time this week, California broke its record for most new cases in a day: On Wednesday it recorded 11,742, breaking the record set on Monday of 11,547, according to data collected by The Chronicle from the state’s 58 counties.
Since the start of the pandemic, California has recorded 431,091 cases and 8,306 deaths. Across the Bay Area, there have been 45,879 cases and 740 deaths.
The state has averaged 8,539 new cases a day in July — well over double the 4,007 daily average of June. And Bay Area counties have averaged 837 new cases a day this month, compared with 393 in June.
Deaths are also on the rise.
On Thursday, California recorded 250 deaths — the most in a day, breaking a record set only the day before for 157 deaths.
California has lost an average of 89 people every day to COVID19 this month, an even deadlier toll than in June, when 64 people died daily of the disease, on average. In strictly numerical terms, the statewide coronavirus death rate has grown by more than 39% this month so far, compared with last month.
“We cannot afford to ignore #COVID19, or simply hope it goes away,” Newsom tweeted Thursday, announcing the state’s record number of deaths. “We have to take action. TOGETHER. Wear a mask. Physically distance. Wash your hands. Your actions can literally save lives.”
Glazer proposed requiring every county to keep their residents at home again, except for essential trips, until the rate of positive tests over 14 days drops below 2% in both the county and its neighbors.
The senator has been criticized in the past by liberal activists for being too businessoriented. But he said Thursday that the harsh economic effects of another stayathome order were necessary to get the coronavirus under control and avoid the continuing lurch between opening and closing that has defined the state’s response so far.
Glazer said the more incremental steps Newsom has taken over the past month, including requiring Californians to wear face coverings in public and closing some businesses such as bars and indoor restaurants, have not contained the surging caseload.
Yet the uncertainty about how to overcome the virus has generated a spectrum of ideas from residents, business owners, politicians and health experts.
Conservative leaders decried as overly harsh Newsom’s order last week to start the school year virtually in much of the state, given that some studies indicate children are less likely to spread or get severely ill from the coronavirus — and one group sued to overturn the directive. And nail salon owners, arguing that it’s impossible for them to work outside, recently formed a group to lobby state officials to let them reopen indoors.
“Some people are going to say it’s enough, some people are going to say it’s not enough, and some people are going to say it’s way too much,” said Dr. Peter ChinHong, an infectiousdisease specialist with UCSF.
“I think the truth is somewhere in between. There’s probably no great formula, but I would say that the interventions that Newsom already has in place apply to probably more than 8090% of the population anyway.”
Newsom last week ordered more than 30 counties to close bars, indoor restaurants, movie theaters and family entertainment centers as the surge worsened.
“We’ve done a lot since the initial shelter in place, so I think reviewing some of the things that we’ve done and the things that we can do better might be a better way of thinking about it, rather than saying, ‘shelter in place for everybody or ‘no shelter in place,’ ” ChinHong said.
California reported 421,197 overall cases Wednesday, surpassing New York’s count of 413,595, according to data gathered by The Chronicle and the New York Times.
Yet California, a much larger state, has far fewer cases per 100,000 people than New York does: 1,061 versus 2,136.
Meanwhile, officials added Santa Cruz County to a list of counties being monitored by the state. The county has recently recorded “dramatically increasing” numbers of coronavirus cases, and the case rate increased to the point that state health officials added the county to the list, officials said during a news conference.
Instead saying, ‘We’re of just closing everything down,’ you need to be a little more nuanced than that.”
Dr. Art Reingold, UC Berkeley School of Public Health infectious disease expert