Hot fun, elevated risk in weekend forecast
Virus cases top 600,000, but outdoor crowds likely
The Bay Area is expecting to run a coronavirusandheatwave gantlet this weekend with sunstarved residents heading to parks and beaches in the midst of a surge in coronavirus cases that topped 600,000 cases statewide on Thursday evening.
Temperatures are likely to hit triple digits in the Bay Area this weekend, a major worry for health officers who foresee crowds of sunbathing, beerdrinking, Frisbeethrowing beachgoers spreading more sickness around the region.
The number of coronavirus cases has steadily risen in the Bay Area this month, with an aver
age of 1,036 new cases recorded each day — a nearly 27% increase over the daily average of 818 cases in July. That’s much worse than in June, which averaged 393 new cases a day.
In the Bay Area, 66,628 people have tested positive for the coronavirus since the pandemic began, and 941 have died.
The National Weather Service issued a heat advisory Thursday for temperatures forecast to hit the upper 90s to low hundreds throughout the Bay Area on Friday and Saturday, reaching as high as 105 and potentially 108 in interior East Bay cities like Livermore, Antioch and Brentwood.
Even cooler coastal regions like San Francisco and Oakland will experience temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s, a lure that may be too hard to resist for folks starving for human companionship and fun after so much isolation.
The balmy temperatures might make people forget about the blankets of coastal fog in the Bay Area over the past few weeks, but they are heightening concerns about infection.
UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford offered a cautionary tale: In Israel, a May heat wave inspired school officials to let kids remove their mask — contributing to the massive resurgence in cases.
“People will want to take off their masks when it’s hot,” Rutherford said. “Don’t do it.”
The nice weather is likely to exacerbate tensions in places where people congregate, like Lake Merritt, where a lawyer for nearby residents is urging Oakland to enforce its May ban on vendors. As Alameda County’s coronavirus cases have soared, the vendors have contributed to a party atmosphere at the lake for much of the summer.
But neighbors say it’s worse than that. They say the vendors are drawing crowds of people who litter, urinate on the sidewalks, play loud music, do drugs, and engage in prostitution and violence late into the night. Now Oakland’s Business Assistance Center is pushing the vendors to apply for permits and pay city fees.
Councilwoman Nikki Fortunato Bas, who represents the area, hopes to move the merchants to a safer location, such as the small strip of El Embarcadero between Grand and Lakeshore avenues, or near the Lakeview Library. She is wary of coronavirus transmission but recognizes that vendors “are there out of economic necessity.”
A jewelry vendor who identified himself only as Yassini was at Lake Merritt on Thursday selling chains, gold Nefertiti pendants, rings, fedoras and straw hats with feathers from folding tables next to his van, which was parked on Lakeshore Avenue.
Yassini, who didn’t want to disclose his last name for fear of political retaliation in his home country, Tanzania, said he agrees with many of the concerns and has no objection to the permit. But he disagreed with concerns that the vendors pose any risk of spreading the coronavirus.
“It’s very safe to be here,” said Yassini, wearing a black Gucci mask as a bassheavy soundtrack blared from a car idling nearby. He says the neighbors are targeting vendors because they are mostly African American.
Creation Makomen, who was selling pipes, lighters, sunglasses and apparel, said he had to close his store in the Fruitvale district because of the pandemic and is selling his wares at Lake Merritt to make ends meet.
“This is a form of survival,” said Makomen, indicating that he can’t afford to worry about getting sick.
Brenda Jackson, who sat on a blanket nearby having a picnic with her husband, said she isn’t afraid of contracting the disease.
“Everybody’s been really smart, social distancing and wearing masks,” said Jackson, who came to Lake Merritt from her home in the Montclair district to enjoy the warm weather.
On Thursday the path circling the lake and surrounding grassy hillsides were filled with joggers, parents picnicking with babies in strollers, cyclists and people sharing exercise equipment near the pavilion.
The number of coronavirus cases in California exploded in June and July after businesses began to open up, shelterinplace orders were relaxed and Black Lives Matter protests erupted across the state.
The surge forced Gov. Gavin Newsom to order bars, indoor dining, gyms, malls and other indoor businesses shuttered for a second time last month in dozens of counties where the virus was spreading fastest. He also ordered schools in those counties to begin the academic year with distance learning rather than inperson instruction.
Since the pandemic began, 597,121 people in California have tested positive for the coronavirus, and 10,856 have died. However, the average number of daily recorded cases appears to have dropped slightly this month, to 7,697. By contrast, July saw an average of 8,579 new cases a day — more than double that of June, which averaged 4,007 cases a day.
In California, it took 124 days to go from the first reported case in late January to 100,000 cases. By the time California passed 400,000 cases on July 21, it would take only 10 more days to pass 500,000 cases, on July 31. Now, 13 days later, California cases have topped 600,000.
And deaths appear to be rising across the state.
In August, an average of 131 infected people a day died in California, up from the 101 daily average in July and about double June’s average of 64 COVID19 deaths a day.
The high numbers were recorded despite a computer error that recently caused the state to undercount coronavirus cases. Deaths typically lag two weeks or more behind new cases.
The bad news came after California received applause this spring for its early statewide shutdown, which apparently slowed the spread of the coronavirus after its introduction into the United States.
Newsom said this week that California is “turning the corner on this pandemic” — the 5,422 patients in hospitals represent a 19% decrease over the past two weeks. But he vowed to move cautiously and avoid making the same mistake as before, when restrictions were loosened too fast.
Most public outdoor areas and parking lots are expected to be open this weekend, with local crowd control efforts expected on a casebycase basis.
Golden Gate National Recreation Area parks and beaches are expected to remain open this weekend, including Fort Funston, Fort Mason parking lots, Crissy Field, and Ocean and Baker beaches in San Francisco, and Stinson and Muir beaches in Marin County.
GGNRA officials have closed many visitor centers, day use areas and other places where people congregate, including the Presidio Visitor Center and Fort Point National Historic Site in San Francisco, and the Marin Headlands visitor center, Point Bonita Lighthouse and Battery Townsley in Marin. The fire pits at Ocean Beach and Muir Beach are also closed.
Hot weather is expected to increase fire danger, in addition to the other concerns over the next couple of months, which are typically the driest time of the year in California. The National Weather Service issued an “excessive heat watch” for much of interior California and parts of the East and South Bay starting at noon on Friday through Sunday evening.
Temperatures are expected to cool Monday and Tuesday, but heat will persist in interior regions through midweek, and it could get even hotter by the end of next week, according to the National Weather Service.