Prop. 16 for affirmative action trails badly in poll

California voters are strongly opposed to lifting the state’s 24yearold restrictions on affirmative action, but seem willing to make major revisions to 1978’s Proposition 13, a new poll indicates.

Proposition 16, which would rescind a 1996 ballot measure barring the use of race as a consideration for public university admission and government employment and contracting, is opposed by 47% of California’s likely voters, with 31% in favor. But more than a fifth of those surveyed are undecided, less than three weeks before ballots are mailed for the Nov. 3 election.

The numbers are more settled for Proposition 15, which would create a split property tax roll by allowing more frequent reassessment of large commercial and industrial properties, while retaining the existing tax limits for homes and

other residential property.

Supporters hold a slim 51% majority among likely voters, with 40% opposed and 9% undecided.

The differences aren’t surprising, said Mark Baldassare, CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California and director of the poll.

“Prop. 15 has been out there for a while, and people know the concept” of boosting taxes for business and commercial property, he said. “But the Legislature put Prop. 16 on the ballot, and a lot of people don’t know much about it.”

A question asking about the importance of the vote on the two ballot measures shows an enthusiasm gap.

Among likely voters, 81% say the vote on Prop. 15, the split roll initiative, is either very or somewhat important to them, compared with 73% who say the same about Prop. 16, the affirmative action measure.

“The large number of undecideds suggests that people still have a lot to learn about Prop. 16,” Baldassare said. “They haven’t decided it’s important, but they are at least thinking about it.”

Earlier this year, the Legislature overwhelmingly passed ACA5, which put Prop. 16 on the November ballot to overturn Proposition 209, the initiative that banned preferential treatment by government agencies “on the basis of race, sex, color ethnicity or national origin.” The 1996 measure passed with 55% of the vote.

The idea of a split roll tax has been around almost since Prop. 13 passed as an effort to trim rising property taxes that supporters argued were forcing people from their homes. Opponents complained that over the years, the benefits of the tax limits would increasingly go to large landowners and corporations that would sell their properties much less often than homeowners, allowing them to keep the lower tax rates for far longer.

Supporters of Prop. 15, including teacher unions, community groups, public employee unions and local officials, say the change would raise as much as $12 billion a year for schools and local government. Opponents argue that it would create unsustainable new taxes that would hurt the state’s business community and economy.

The poll is based on a telephone survey of 1,704 California adults, including 1,168 likely voters, that was taken Sept. 413. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3% for likely voters.