Dire warning to California on climate change
WASHINGTON — More than 500,000 Californians could die prematurely and the state could lose $4.5 trillion in the next 50 years if rising climate temperatures go unchecked, a new congressional report warns.
If the planet’s warming is kept below 2 degrees Celsius, however, those deaths could be avoided, and in 10 years, premature deaths caused by climatechangefueling air pollution could be cut by a third. Those are the conclusions in a report unveiled Thursday by Democrats on the House Oversight and Reform subcommittee on environment, which is chaired by Rep. Harley Rouda, DLaguna Beach (Orange County).
The report is based on research by noted Duke
University climate scientist Drew Shindell. It was released to coincide with the panel’s hearing Thursday on climate change, one of several that Democrats have held to make the case for taking action to limit greenhousegas emissions.
The report focuses on the possible benefits from restoring the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set a target for its member nations to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius, the equivalent of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. President Trump withdrew from the agreement upon taking office.
Rouda and fellow Democratic House Oversight and Reform Committee members Reps. Mark DeSaulnier of Concord, Ro Khanna of Fremont and Katie Porter of Irvine, called the report a “call to action” in a joint statement to The Chronicle.
“The unprecedented wildfires that have continued to burn throughout California over the past few months have devastated the West Coast and illustrate the lifeshattering harms of climate change,” the lawmakers said. “What is currently happening across California has shown the rest of the country that climate change isn’t a problem for future generations to solve — our constituents are living this reality right now.”
The analysis released Thursday used models developed by Shindell that calculate different climate outcomes based on the amount of effort governments put into reducing carbon emissions. While a previous study by the subcommittee looked at the effect nationwide, the research released Thursday focuses on California alone.
The study used epidemiological data to calculate the health effects and a system used by the Environmental Protection Agency to tally the economic consequences. It compared the 2degree benchmark to a scenario in which the climate is allowed to warm 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
In addition to avoiding 555,000 premature deaths over 50 years in California alone, adherence to the Paris Agreement goals would avert 400,000 hospital visits, including 4,900 for children with asthma, the congressional study said.
By 2040, interventions could prevent 147,000 early deaths and 300,000 of those hospital visits, the study said.
The Democraticled congressional report takes aim at the Trump administration, accusing it of taking actions that risk making climate change worse — including its attempt to roll back the Obama administration rule strengthening fuel economy standards for cars.
That effort has spurred a legal battle with California, which has its own emissions standards that exceed the federal government’s and has made agreements with car manufacturers to stick to them. The Trump administration is trying to revoke California’s ability to set its own standards, prompting another court fight.
This week, Gov. Gavin Newsom moved to ban the sale of gaspowered vehicles in the state by 2035.
The Trump administration has argued that its emissions rule will be better for people’s health by keeping car prices down, thus reducing the number of older, less safe cars on the road than would be the case if fuel economy requirements continued to rise.
Republicans in general, and Trump in particular, have dismissed the global scientific consensus that human behavior is causing rising temperatures and thus shifts in climate patterns.
At the committee’s last hearing on climate change, Republicans invited a witness who testified that the societal and technological advances brought on by fossil fuel energy consumption outweigh and mitigate the health costs of pollution.