Poll: Support is eroding for measure to alter Prop. 13.
Opposition is growing to Proposition 15, which would allow regular tax increases for commercial and industrial property, and support has slipped below the hallmark 50% level in a new statewide poll.
And Proposition 16, which would overturn a 1996 ban on using affirmative action in state employment, education and contracting decisions, is in serious trouble, according to the survey by the nonpartisan
Public Policy Institute of California. The measure is losing in every part of the state, including the Bay Area.
The state’s economic concerns, fueled by the coronavirus pandemic and the social dislocation it has caused, may be making it harder to persuade voters to support measures up and down the November ballot, said Mark Baldassare, the institute’s president and the poll’s director.
On Prop. 15, for example, “the ‘ no’ side’s message is, ‘ Should we be doing this now?’ and that’s what a lot of voters are questioning,” he said.
Prop. 15 supporters argue that changing 1978’ s landmark Proposition 13 to allow a split roll, with only highend comCAMPAIGN
mercial and industrial property reassessed every few years, would bring in billions of dollars annually for cashstarved schools and local governments. Opponents say it would be a new tax that would hurt businesses, farmers and consumers.
The measure now holds a 49% to 45% lead among likely voters, with 6% undecided. That fourpoint margin is down from 11 points in the institute’s September poll, when the lead was 51% to 40%.
Support breaks strongly along party lines, with 71% of Democrats in favor and 75% of Republicans opposed. Independent voters are split, with 42% in favor of the property tax measure and 55% opposed.
“Independent voters are typically the ones who can change their minds, but they’re mainly voting ‘ no,’ ” Baldassare said.
On Prop. 16, the gap has narrowed in the past month, but supporters are running out of time and voters. Half the state’s likely voters oppose the measure, while 37% want to restore affirmative action. That 13point margin is down from 16 points in the institute’s September poll, while the number of undecided voters has fallen from 22% to 12%.
“Endorsements by Sen. Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom have apparently helped solidify Democratic support,” Baldassare said. “But while California voters have been very supportive of antiracism efforts, it’s not being connected with voting for Prop. 16.”
In the Bay Area, one of the state’s most liberal regions, 40% of likely voters support Prop. 16, with 46% opposed.
Although the poll found 60% of likely California voters are satisfied with the way the initiative process is working, they have bipartisan concerns that there are too many measures on the ballot. A total of 82% believe initiatives are often too complicated and confusing for voters to understand what happens if they pass.
“People tend to be cautious and will vote ‘ no’ if they’re unsure what the consequences are,” Baldassare said.
With the November election being conducted almost entirely by mail, the numbers in the new poll may be harder to move than in other election years.
“The reality is that a lot of people have already voted,” Baldassare said. “The only possibility for change is among those who haven’t yet voted.”
More than 4.5 million ballots already have been returned in the state, better than 20% of all registered voters.
The poll also found that the recent battle over whether to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U. S. Supreme Court hasn’t changed Californians’ stance on abortion and the Affordable Care Act.
California adults opposed Barrett’s confirmation by a highly partisan 47% to 41%, with 79% of Democrats opposed, 84% of Republicans in favor and independents split.
But 60% of Californians have a favorable view of the Obamacare insurance law, which could be endangered with the conservative Barrett on the court. And only a quarter of the state’s adults favor overturning the Roe vs. Wade decision legalizing abortion. The 70% who don’t want to see abortion rights curtailed includes 53% of the state’s Republicans.
California’s likely voters continue to back Democrat Joe Biden for president, favoring him over President Trump, 58% to 32%. The Central Valley is the only region supporting Trump.
Trump’s election numbers reflect California’s disappointment with the job he has done as president. Only 34% of likely voters approve of his performance, including a third of independent voters. Even in the Central Valley, 58% of likely voters are unhappy with the president’s efforts.
The poll is based on a telephone survey taken Oct. 918 of 1,701 California adults, including 1,185 likely voters. The margin of error for the sample of all adults is plus or minus 3.5% and 4.3% for likely voters.