Beane’s future and free agency dominate Oakland fans’ worries
With theWorld Series in the rearview mirror, the offseason presents plenty of questions about the A’s — and a lot of consternation among Oakland fans.
Tops on the list, judging by this week’s Twitter mailbag haul: The future of the franchise minus Billy Beane.
I must remind folks that Beane’s departure is not a done deal — I’d gauge it likely to very likely — butMajor League Baseball must approve RedBall’s merger with the Fenway Sports Group, and that’s not a slam dunk, even with powerful Red Sox owner John Henry involved. Baseball has rules against public ownership of franchises, and I’d guess that more owners than not would prefer to keep their books closed to scrutiny. If Boston’s are opened, the players’ union, the umpires’ union and others will be very interested, especially with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement looming.
Even if that deal does not go through, Beane could still decide to devote his time to the RedBall sports investment venture fulltime. This is a time with a lot of tension between owners and front offices in every sport — furloughs, costcutting, that’s tough for top execs, especially one with that kind of nextlevel ability, who’s been with the franchise for 30 years and who cares deeply about the longtime employees.
So let’s start there, with the angst over Beane:
@ sayonaraML: If Billy leaves will David Forst stay? What does the future of the front office look like without
Moneyball?
I’d be stunned if things changed much at all. I would strongly anticipate Forst staying and either resuming with Beane’s title or just sticking with the current GMtitle. ( Those are just titles, the responsibilities always remained essentially the same.) I’m sure Forst has ideas of his own, and plenty of them, but the main emphasis— do more with less, find value others overlook— would remain. That’sMoneyball.
@ yesyeah asked if the A’s might now incorporate more small ball if Beane leaves. Well, if somehow analysts decide that’s the best use for the current personnel, perhaps. I wouldn’t hold my breath, though we’ve seen this postseason that at least a passing familiarity with bunting and stealing bases can make a difference in a big moment, especially when an offense goes flat. I always think there’s more of a place for it than the A’s have shown in the Beane era, but I’m also a dinosaur.
@ theelephantin13 asked if assistant GMBilly Owens might get a promotion should Beane leave— well, that depends on whether Owens winds up with a GM job elsewhere. He’s a candidate in Anaheim and also might be with theMets should the Steve Cohen purchase deal go through. The A’s have other capable candidates for promotion, too, though, including assistant GMDan Feinstein and quickly rising special assistant Steve Sharpe.
@ doworkson0428: With the news of Beane leaving, Melvin being wanted for the Mets and the owner being reluctant to spend money, was that it for this group of A’s? Are we going to see them sell and rebuild again?
I received a few questions about BobMelvin’s status, which was based on my colleague Ann Killion’s so far mostapt speculation several weeks ago that Beane might have a foot out the door with his new venture ( before theWall Street Journal reported it) and that, if Cohen successfully lands theMets, he’ll bring Sandy Alderson back. Alderson could well wish to bringMelvin, who is among baseball’s most admired and decorated managers, along with him. But A’s owner John Fisher would have to approve that since Melvin is under contract for the coming season.
Could it be a rerun of 2002? Art Howe was still under contract but the A’s allowed him to leave to become theMets’ manager. Fisher obviously was not the Oakland owner then, and Fisher deniedMelvin the chance to talk to the Yankees two years ago.
So there’s a lot of speculation, maybe a little too much to make the leap it will happen, but it’s certainly not impossible.
As for rebuilding: There are a lot more questions about that swirling around in theMailbag. For my money, I’d say it’s more likely than not, especially in the wake of the pandemic cutbacks the organization has endured.
@ scaloiaro: Did the A’s miss their window?
Maybe. It’s not a crazy question, anyway. We kind of know this threeyearsofplayoffs, threeyearswithout cycle pretty well by now, and the likelihood of losing most or all 10 free agents, including Liam Hendriks and, probably, Marcus Semien ... well, that would be a lot to absorb.
@ tjohnson1960: Which is more likely: Semien being offered a QO or them signing him to a lesser twoyear contract?
It would be terrific if they did either. The best I think they can hope for is maybe a oneyear deal should Semien want to try to rebuild his value after a down year, but some teams will discount the 60game season as a measuring stick, and I believe he’ll have multiyear offers on the table. Not in the potentially $ 75 million to $ 100 million range he might have been looking at had he been a free agent last winter, but probably more than he’ll find in Oakland.
In general, I think the $ 18.9 million qualifying offer will just be too risky for the A’s to offer anyone. They’ve never paid anyone that much. They don’t want to pay anyone that much, especially after zero ticket revenue this year. I can’t see it, much as they’d love the compensation picks.
@ CallieTsai: The A’s have a lot of bullpen pieces hitting FA this year ( Soria, McFarland, Petit, Hendriks). Are we going to see some of those 4 return to the A’s, or is the team more likely to promote James Kaprielian and Daulton Jefferies to the bullpen full time in 2021?
I think it will be a mix. This is an area the A’s might spend a little money— in the past few years they’ve given multiyear offers to Joakim Soria, Yusmeiro Petit and Jake Diekman. They’ll try to find more value among players such as those, and I wouldn’t rule out bringing back someone from that specific group.
Not Liam Hendriks, though. He’ll get paid somewhere, and good for him.