Workers wary of winter’s slowdown
Spring, summer and fall have been hard enough this year. And now comes winter. For those working in the restaurant business, it means people may be more reluctant to eat outside in cold, rainy weather. And a worsening pandemic may mean people remain skittish about dining indoors — and governments are likely to keep strict limits on the number of tables inside.
Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and director of policy at the nonprofit Economic Policy Institute, said the colder months could mean less outdoor dining and subsequent cuts to food service staff at a time when there are already millions more unemployed jobseekers than positions available in the U. S.
“It’s a really, really difficult time to be unemployed,” she said.
Chefs Bilal Ali and Keone Koki know this — they have been through lockdowns, layoffs and more. Ali lost his job as a cook at the Starline Social Club in Oakland in March when the economic shutdown began; Koki consulted at Bar Agricole in San Francisco before the pandemic hit.
After various stops and starts between them — food stamps, delays in getting unemployment money, a brief return to the Starline, a shortlived popup — the two recently set up shop under the name Michoz at the Hidden Cafe in Berkeley. They give a small portion of their earnings to the owner of the cafe, which is still operating, in exchange for using the space to run a separate operation cranking out picnicstyle boxes that customers can set out in nearby Strawberry Creek Park.
But the opentop boxes may become less popular when the rain and falling temperatures hit, so they may have to reinvent themselves once again. Ali is considering delivering packaged meals himself, but that is timeconsuming and not especially lucrative.
“We’re just going to walk before we can run,” Ali said of setting up delivery while still building the takeout business.
They are hoping to make it. But should they drift back into unemployment, they would be far from alone. On Thursday, federal data showed 751,000 Americans filed for regular unemployment benefits for the first time last week, a decrease of 7,000 people from the prior week’s revised level. In California, 152,428 workers requested initial assistance, adding to the workload of the state’s Employment Development Department, which is trying to clear a backlog of claims that need processing.
California continues to make up a significant portion of new claims nationally, according to Michael Bernick, an attorney with law firm Duane Morris and former head of the state’s unemployment office. “While California has around 11% of the nation’s civilian labor force, this morning again it has over 20% of the claims,” Bernick said in an email. He added the state’s initial filings last week were almost four times the weekly claims seen before the pandemic set in.
Daniel Zhao, senior economist at job site Glassdoor, has yet to see evidence that job postings on the site are slowing down in the foodservice industry as winter arrives.
But “there is a large concern whether we’ll see additional layoffs” in the industry, he said.
In addition to colder weather, California establishments remain subject to the stopandstart decisions of the state and counties. Last month, for example, San Francisco halted its plans to allow restaurants to open at 50% capacity indoors — up from 25% allowed currently — because of the rising number of coronavirus cases.
A lifeline for some workers could also expire soon.
The federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, established in March for selfemployed and gig workers and people who do not normally qualify for regular unemployment, got almost 363,000 new applications last week.
California had processed more than 4.3 million claims as of last week for those workers under the federal program.
But unless Congress acts, the program will expire at the end of the year — and that creates huge uncertainty in an already teetering job market, according to Shierholz, the economist.
The program offers benefits for just under 40 weeks, a period that will also expire before the end of the year for those who took advantage of the program early on.
“That will mean people out of work will be financially devastated,” Shierholz said.