Pandemic sends S. F. economy into a free fall
Economic activity at businesses in San Francisco dropped sharply in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic and the economy continues to struggle, according to data released Tuesday at a Board of Supervisors meeting.
From April to June, taxable sales, or money spent by consumers, plunged 50% to $ 2.6 billion compared with a year ago, according to the city’s Budget and Legislative Analyst’s Office. More than a third of the reduction, or $ 1 billion, came from the retail and food businesses, two areas that were mostly closed during that time.
Sales tax revenue dropped 43% to $ 30.8 million from the prior year, according to an October report, suggesting that the city’s population declined and most office workers went remote. The city collects 1% of the 8.5% sales tax for local use.
The first March shelterinplace health order shut down vast swaths of the economy, including nonessential retailers and nonessential offices, indoor dining, gyms and beauty salons, which officials said was crucial in curbing the spread of the virus. San Francisco tightened restrictions again this month as coronavirus cases soared, shutting down outdoor dining and hair and nail salons.
Fred Brousseau, director of policy analysis at the Budget and Legislative Analyst’s Office, said it’s difficult to think of any period, including the Great Recession in 2008, where entire industries have had to close all at once.
“In a typical recession, business may slacken and some will close, but abrupt industrywide closures and reductions are an extreme development,” Brousseau said.
San Francisco made hardly any gains in online sales and instore sales tanked, which is unusual compared to other cities in California, said Ted Egan, the city’s chief economist, at Tuesday’s meeting.
Egan said San Francisco’s small businesses suffered with the dearth of office workers, absent tourists and, potentially, residents moving out of the city for more affordable areas.
It is still unclear how many small businesses have permanently closed. The Tuesday report said 7% of retail business in the San Francisco metro area, which includes San Mateo County, were temporarily closed during the week of Dec. 713.
An estimated 56% of small businesses with storefronts in the city were behind on rent, another indication of economic turmoil. Hotel businesses were behind by an estimated 18%, but office tenants were behind by only 0.3%, suggesting that sector is faring better than any other. Major publicly traded office landlords have also said during earnings calls that they were collecting up to 90% of office tenants’ rents, but a lower portion of retail rents.
In the San Francisco metro area, leisure and hospitality, including restaurants, accounted for 43.6% of lost jobs from November 2019 to November 2020. Retail, part of the trade, transportation and utilities industries, accounted for 13.7% of unemployment over the same time period.
Egan said the pandemic has brought about a Kshaped recession in the city, where highwage earners likely to be working from home are doing fine while the lowwage workers severely feel the economic pain.
“What we really have in San Francisco are two economies,” he said.