Danger not over: Health experts warn of a false sense of security
With coronavirus case numbers plummeting, vaccinations rising and several Bay Area counties reopening their economy, it feels like the end is in sight for the pandemic. But public health experts warned Wednesday that a false sense of optimism could have deadly consequences, particularly as highly infectious coronavirus variants continue to take hold in the state.
“We’ve seen this story over and over again in the Bay Area,” said Dr. Peter ChinHong, an infectious disease expert with UCSF. “We have a surge and then we have a honeymoon period of five to six weeks when everything opens back up, and then we have another surge. If you look back, that is the pattern for California.”
Most of the Bay Area’s nine counties have left the most restrictive, purple tier of the state’s reopening system and
moved into the less restrictive red tier, which permits some indoor dining and limited use of gyms, movie theaters and museums. Only Alameda, Sonoma, Solano and Contra Costa counties remain in the purple tier.
Along with pandemic fatigue and outcry from ailing businesses that have been forced to shutter for months, part of the urgency behind reopening California’s economy may be driven by a highprofile recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has spent the past few weeks on a feverish campaignstyle tour of vaccination sites and schools across the state.
“We really are seeing that bright light at the end of the tunnel,” Newsom has repeated at several of his appearances, reframing the severity of the pandemic.
Even San Francisco and Santa Clara counties, which earlier in the pandemic exercised far more caution than the state — joining other Bay Area counties to impose the nation’s first shelterinplace orders — are now moving aggressively to reopen. They have even dropped their travel quarantine requirements.
Up and down the state, people are gathering in greater numbers, dropping their masks, and generally taking California’s incremental signs of progress against the coronavirus as a green light to resume normal life.
“Fatigue is winning and the exact measures we have taken to stop the pandemic are now too often being flagrantly ignored,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention speaking Wednesday at a White House briefing.
Marin and San Mateo counties also moved into the red tier last week, leaving Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano and Sonoma as the only Bay Area counties in the purple tier.
Some public health officials fear this patchwork approach to reopening could backfire.
“People in the Bay Area are mobile,” said ChinHong. “People who have more restrictions in their counties will come into counties with fewer restrictions so they can go to restaurants or movies.
“I hope we don’t look back on this time and say, ‘Wow, we had it so good then.’ I think it’s completely plausible,” he added.
The new virus variants are also emerging at a pace that may help them elude the current vaccines.
“We’re in a race against the variants, which are more infectious than the original virus,” said Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, a Stanford expert in infectious diseases and vaccines.
President Biden vowed on Tuesday to accelerate the vaccine delivery timeline in the United States. But most Americans will not be eligible to receive their shots until May at the earliest.
ChinHong thinks political leaders are facing mounting public pressure in their more aggressive approach to reopening.
“The natives are restless,” he said. “If they did not reopen with these measures in place then people wouldn’t uphold ordinances. Gone are the days of totalitarianism, where Gavin Newsom and London Breed could shut everything down and everybody would stay home because they were afraid of this virus. With the most vulnerable people being vaccinated already, meeting people where they are is important.”
Other states are moving even more rapidly.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday lifted all of the state’s pandemic restrictions, including capacity limits and a mask mandate — a move that Newsom called “absolutely reckless.” Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi also dropped all restrictions, saying, “Our hospitalizations and case numbers have plummeted, and the vaccine is being rapidly distributed. It is time!”
Yet public health experts say those moves could put the entire nation at risk for a fourth surge of infections and the development of even more variants, especially with spring break coming up and the potential for increased travel.
“That is completely berserk,” said ChinHong. “The virus doesn’t exist in a state. It doesn’t respect borders. It doesn’t contain itself to one area.”
Walensky of the CDC said it was too soon for states to eliminate restrictions as deaths and new infections have plateaued at a “troubling” level after falling off their January highs.
“I think we at the CDC have been very clear that now is not the time to release all restrictions,” she said Wednesday.
President Biden was even more direct, saying it was “a big mistake” for states to drop coronavirus restrictions to open their economies.
“The last thing we need is the Neanderthal thinking that, ‘In the meantime, everything is fine, take off your mask, forget it,’ ” he said, noting that the virus has claimed more than 518,000 American lives. “It still matters.”