Warriors need to be good, but not too good
For all but the hopeless, lotterybound NBA teams, the idea is to power through the season’s second half with a fury, hoping to get the highest possible seed in the playoffs and take it from there.
Things aren’t nearly that simple for the Warriors. Do they know for certain how they want this to turn out? Consider the options:
⏩ Finish with one of the league’s 10 best records. What an accomplishment! And definitely not recommended.
Should the Warriors join this elite company, they would
lose their firstround pick and convey it to Oklahoma City, as part of the Kelly Oubre Jr. trade. It seems highly unlikely, given that nine teams figure to remain among the top 10 (in order): Jazz, Suns, 76ers, Nets, Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, Trail Blazers (Damian Lillard won’t have it any other way) and Nuggets (the pure star power of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray).
San Antonio holds the No. 10 slot with an 1814 record, but at least eight other teams fit into a tightly bunched group of contenders that includes the Warriors (1918). Among those eight, Miami, Boston and Dallas are all primed to make a stirring secondhalf run. So this isn’t a terribly worrisome prospect.
Besides, it’s hardly a catastrophe to be drafting below No. 10. A number of excellent players have been selected there over the past three years, including Shai GilgeousAlexander, Michael Porter Jr., Tyler Herro and some terrific rookies from this season’s crop, notably the Kings’ Tyrese Haliburton. The Warriors would just need to regain their draftnight touch — think Draymond Green and Klay Thompson — after misfiring with the likes of Jacob Evans, Damian Jones and possibly Jordan Poole, whose recent resurgence makes his status an open question.
⏩ Finish among the top six in the Western Conference, thus avoiding the “playin” tournament involving the 710 teams. Given that the Warriors hardly resemble a juggernaut right now, with many issues at hand, this is extremely unlikely. They stand ninth, with Denver holding down No. 6 at 2115.
The playin assignment is portrayed as a worstcase scenario — given that Golden State doesn’t fall out of contention entirely — but it really isn’t. Getting into that 710 crowd means you’ve essentially reached the postseason. For certain, hopes can expire rather quickly; the Nos. 9 and 10 teams will have to win two consecutive games or be gone. The 78 teams will face each other. The winner is the seventh seed. The loser then hosts the winner of the 910 matchup to get the eighth seed.
By this time, though, the Warriors will know precisely where they stand. If they’re on a roll, with Stephen Curry and Green in vintage form, they could weather this storm rather easily. If they’re in a dismantled state, why bother dreaming? Elimination would be their proper fate, and in the wake of a second half colliding headon with the pandemic, they probably wouldn’t mind.
Finish out of the postseason altogether. Not a good look, especially with the Warriors shouldering the biggest payroll
in NBA history. No one would expect them to make any kind of significant postseason run, but primary owner Joe Lacob would love to be hosting some playoff action, and everyone — including the television networks — would cherish the sight of Curry in some games that matter.
You get the feeling the Warriors would get over the rejection, including their fans, when the draft comes into focus. Coupled with the topthreeprotected pick they could acquire from Minnesota, they would be looking at two very attractive firstround selections. This why the current
trade rumors, one of them centered around Houston’s Victor Oladipo, don’t sound very compelling. There isn’t a single trade option that suddenly would lift the Warriors into the Western Conference elite.
In sum, we’ve reached the corner of Maybe and You Never Know. In the absence of clarity, you also can rule out panic and desperation for the Warriors’ second half. All’s well if they aren’t too good.