Newsom’s job, Biden’s agenda are at stake if recall succeeds
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s promise to name a Black woman to Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat if she doesn’t finish her term was a nottoosubtle reminder to Democrats that there’s a lot more at stake in a recall election than just Newsom’s job.
What’s at stake, potentially, is Joe Biden’s agenda.
The subtext to Newsom’s promise: He is trying to fearmonger Democrats about the national consequences should he be recalled and replaced by a Republican. That person would appoint a replacement to the Senate if the 87yearold Feinstein does not complete her term, which runs through 2024. (That would also apply if Sen. Alex Padilla doesn’t complete his term that ends in 2022, but the scare tactic doesn’t work as well since Padilla is 47. )
There’s zero possibility that a Republican governor would
choose a Democrat — of any race, gender, ethnicity or shoe size — to replace a Democratic senator. Suddenly, that 5050 split that gives Democrats the upper hand in the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tiebreaking vote disappears.
So does the hope of passing a sprawling bill called HR1, aimed partly at keeping Republicans in many states from making it harder for people to vote — most of whom happen to be people of color.
So does the Democrats’ desire to pass legislation on gun control, police accountability or immigration. And should another vacancy emerge on the Supreme Court — liberal Justice Stephen Breyer is said to be mulling retirement — that replacement would have to be conservative enough to get through a GOPled Senate. Ask Merrick Garland about that.
“The Democrats’ majority is as tenuous as you can get. So if you remove one Democrat and you replace her with one Republican, then Republicans get back all the power in the Senate,” said Jessica Taylor, who analyzes the Senate for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
“It would be a huge impediment for Biden to get his agenda through,” Taylor said.
During an interview Monday night on MSNBC, Newsom told Joy Reid that he was committed to appointing a Black woman to the Senate if Feinstein does not finish her term and that he had “multiple names in mind.”
As Newsom himself might say, there was a great deal of “intentionality” to him making those remarks on leftleaning MSNBC.
“When you go on a national progressive show like Joy Reid’s, they (Newsom campaign operatives) know what the implications are,” Taylor said. “He’s going to need to be fundraising (for the recall). So in the same way that the Georgia (Senate elections in January) became about so much more than Georgia, he’s trying to make the California recall about so much more than California.”
Newsom’s “best strategy is to make this into a partisan election,” said Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York and the founder of the Recall Elections Blog. Newsom wants to “make this as partisan and as clear as possible that this is about Dianne Feinstein. It also helps raise funds from outside.”
The other reason Newsom did not hesitate to promise he would replace Feinstein with a Black woman is that he is trying to energize the Democratic base.
Black women, as a bloc, are the most loyal voters in the Democratic Party, and Newsom wants to make sure they’re on board for the recall. Some Black women, including San Francisco Mayor London Breed, were disappointed when Newsom named Padilla to replace Harris, the only Black woman in the Senate. Breed called it “a real blow to the African American community, African American women, to women in general.”
Taylor said Newsom has to get the party’s core voters excited about supporting him in the recall because “this is going to be a game about turnout and he’s got to make sure that voters come out. Because that is how you can lose a special election — if they don’t.”
Republican strategist Tim Rosales said that while Newsom’s promise may rally more national Democrats to the California recall, that will be a small part of what he needs to do to stay in office.
“For California voters, he will have to point to things that are relevant to daily lives,” said Rosales, who until recently was a strategist for Republican John Cox, who is challenging Newsom. “He’s got to make the case on jobs, the economy and vaccines. Those are the things that will matter to them.”
There’s one big wet blanket smothering Newsom’s promise: Feinstein reassured reporters Tuesday that she “absolutely” intended to finish her term.
And she didn’t drag Newsom under the bus with her. The two have maintained a positive relationship, even though she was one of many in the Democratic establishment who froze out Newsom in 2004 after he authorized samesex marriages at San Francisco City Hall when he was mayor. Feinstein, then the most influential Democrat in California, said the samesex marriage move was “too much, too fast, too soon.”
But now, Feinstein said, they’re good.
“Please, we’re very good friends,” Feinstein told reporters Tuesday at the Capitol in Washington. “I don’t think he meant it the way some people thought.”
Still, the idea that Newsom had a ready list of names to replace her did little to help Feinstein’s dwindling reputation.
Last month, a Berkeley IGS Poll found that 45% of the state’s registered voters disapproved of her job performance, while just 35% approved and 20% had no opinion. It was her lowest approval mark ever. Recent news reports, most prominently a New Yorker article last year, said she is “seriously struggling” with memory loss, though Feinstein said Tuesday it’s “pretty obvious” she can still do the job.
“She is becoming a more polarizing figure nationally. There seems to be more backlash in the state,” Taylor said. “And unfortunately, there are questions raised about her mental acuity.”
While talk of Feinstein not finishing her term may come off as unseemly, Taylor said, it has come up with other octogenarians in the Senate, including Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa.
“These are morbid thoughts you don’t want to have,” Taylor said. “But you do look at older members like Leahy, Feinstein and Grassley with a closer eye when it comes to this.”