Vaccine for all likely in 5 to 6 weeks
Officials say shots are key to dramatic drop in death rate
Amid plunging death rates, a sign that early immunization efforts focused on the most vulnerable residents already are saving lives in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday that the state will likely make vaccines available to all comers by the end of April.
California’s vaccine supply is expected to increase dramatically by the beginning of April, and the state could abandon its eligibility tier structure in five or six weeks, Newsom said at a news conference in San Francisco. So far, vaccines have been strictly limited in California based on age, occupation and other risk factors.
The early emphasis on vaccinating older people and residents of nursing homes, though, appears to be paying off.
Deaths from COVID19 have plummeted in the Bay Area from the peak of the winter surge. In January, the deadliest month of the pandemic so far, the Bay Area reported an average of 54 deaths per day from COVID19. That rate has been cut more than half, to 22 reported deaths per day so far this month.
Experts say the decrease in
deaths can be linked to the end of the surge, and in particular distance from a glut of holidays that encouraged travel and family gettogethers, and that led to subsequent coronavirus infections. They also suspect that vaccines that are especially good at preventing serious illness and death are having an effect.
“This is fabulous news!” said Dr. Robert Siegel, a Stanford infectious disease expert. “This was expected. For example, many communal living facilities with older individuals have systematically vaccinated all the residents and the care providers.”
The general time period between date of infection and date of death is about four to six weeks with the coronavirus. So people dying now were likely infected in February, right when vaccination efforts in nursing homes and for those 75 and older were hitting their stride.
Throughout the pandemic, older people and residents of nursing homes have had much higher rates of death than any other group. In some counties, nursing home deaths have made up half of the total death toll. That was the main motivation behind vaccinating those groups first in California.
The state has used a tiered eligibility system to dole out vaccines due to supply limitations. Currently only people age 65 and older, some essential workers and younger people with disabilities or underlying medical conditions are eligible to be vaccinated.
But California’s vaccine supply is expected to nearly double by April once more doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine become available, said Paul Markovich, chief executive of Blue Shield of California, which manages statewide vaccine distribution.
California is currently receiving about 1.6 million to 1.7 million doses per week. That is expected to stay flat for the remainder of March, but pick up significantly the first week of April, Markovich said in an interview Friday.
“If these supply numbers from manufacturers hold true, we’ll be entering into a phase in the nottoodistant future where there won’t be eligibility tiers and everyone will be able to access a shot,” he said.
Newsom echoed those plans. “We’re anticipating within fiveandahalf weeks ... we can eliminate all the tiering, so to speak, and make available the vaccines to everybody across the spectrum because the supply will exponentially increase,” he said.
The projected timeline is roughly in line with President Biden’s pledge to make vaccines available to any U.S. adult who wants one by May 1. Two states, Alaska and Mississippi, have already expanded vaccine eligibility to all residents over 16 years old; the vaccines have not yet been approved for children. Several other states, including Utah, Michigan and Colorado, have announced plans to do so by April.
In California, 9.2 million people, or 28% of the 16andolder population, are at least partially vaccinated, according to state data. Of that group, 4.8 million people, or 15% of the 16andolder population, are fully vaccinated.
Public health officials have said it’s critical to speed up vaccinations to prevent a fourth surge in cases, and to reduce hospitalizations and deaths from COVID19 if cases do climb again. That’s one reason they’re encouraged by the drop in deaths already being reported across California.
So far San Francisco has recorded 25 deaths, a little over one a day, in March. In February and January, San Francisco recorded 98 and 138 deaths, respectively, averaging about four a day. Death statistics for San Francisco use data compiled by The Chronicle based on the date deaths are reported, not necessarily the date someone died. Some death reports lag by several weeks.
The Bay Area as a whole has seen a steep drop in COVID deaths, from a high of 1,677 in January to 1,127 in February and 371 so far this month. In California, deaths have fallen from a high of 482 a day in January to 240 a day this month.
Dr. Matt Willis, the Marin County health officer, said he feels confident that at least some of the decreases are due to vaccinations. His county reported 33 deaths to COVID in January and six so far this month.
“We started with some of these smaller, more clearly defined settings, like longterm care settings, and saw a very obvious and reassuring drop in cases and hospitalizations and deaths in that setting,” he said. “That’s a microcosm of what I think we’re also seeing now over a longer period of time over the population as a whole.”
He said the county has given at least one vaccine dose to 45% of the eligible population, or about 25% of the total county population. “We’re starting to see the impact. I think the progress we’re seeing is more and more at least in part attributable to vaccinations,” he said.
In Contra Costa County, Dr. Chris Farnitano, the health officer, said that 93% of residents 75 and older had received at least one dose of vaccine, and he could see the payoff in fewer outbreaks in nursing homes and other shared living spaces.
“At our peak we had over 60 active outbreaks in nursing homes in January, and now we’re down to, I think we have seven,” he said. “We’ve seen just a tremendous improvement already. If we do get a fourth wave, I’m very hopeful it won’t be as deadly because of the vaccines.”
Cases also are decreasing week over week in the Bay Area and the state as a whole. But nationally, cases have plateaued recently after a long period of declining, and public health experts have warned that parts of the country could see a resurgence in cases if they don’t remain vigilant.
Dr. George Rutherford, a UCSF infectious disease expert, said the Bay Area is “not out of the woods yet.” But with highly effective vaccines reaching some of the most vulnerable populations, the region may never again see the fatal peaks reported in winter.
“I think we may have put the worst behind us,” he said.