49ers’ new QB — not so fast
Good reasons to keep Garoppolo, at least for now
Wait. Hold on. Not so fast. Don’t jettison Jimmy Garoppolo just yet.
We know: Garoppolo has blown up two seasons because of his injuries and, when he stayed healthy, he blew it in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl.
And now, after Friday’s draftpick trade with the Dolphins, the 49ers are in position to grab a quarterback who has not made anyone apoplectic by overthrowing Emmanuel Sanders.
After trading two future firstround picks and a thirdrounder to move up nine spots to No. 3, the 49ers believe Ohio State’s Justin Fields, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance or Alabama’s Mac Jones (sorry, there’s a good chance BYU’s Zach Wilson is going
No. 2) has elite, franchiseQB ability.
But it’s bold to bet, for example, that a 22yearold such as Fields is the next Favre. And Friday’s risky move should be followed by a cautious approach. And that means keeping Garoppolo, probably through the 2021 season.
The 49ers have maintained that’s the plan. A team source told ESPN on Friday: “Jimmy is here to stay. He’s our guy this year.”
That could be a bluff to maximize Garoppolo’s trade value. However, unless someone (hello, Bill Belichick) offers an absurd package, the 49ers should resist the urge to make a deal.
Here are the reasons to keep Garoppolo in 2021:
The rookie might not be good
All teams love their highly drafted QBs.
Then those QBs start playing.
Need a reminder of how hard it is to evaluate quarterbacks? Consider this list of the QBs selected with the No. 3 pick in the Super Bowl era: Sam Darnold (2018), Blake Bortles (2014), Matt Ryan (2008), Vince Young (2006), Joey Harrington (2002), Akili Smith (1999), Steve McNair (1995), Heath Shuler (1994), Jim Everett (1986), Jack Thompson (1979), Dan Pastorini (1971), Mike Phipps (1970) and Steve Spurrier (1967).
The grand total: One former U.S. Congressman (Shuler) and zero Super Bowl wins.
Last week, two days before the 49ers’ trade with Miami, former Saints and Dolphins general manager Randy Mueller was asked about the 49ers potentially trading up for a QB. He said he felt fairly confident about Wilson and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, the presumptive No. 1 pick, having NFL success. Fields, Lance and Jones? He views them as unpolished “prospects.”
“Just because some people say there are five quarterbacks available in the first round, that doesn’t mean you can fix your quarterback position,” Mueller said.
But the 49ers are different, you say, because they have offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan driving this process. The head coach has a leg up on his peers when it comes to X’sandO’s. But evaluating QBs?
In 2017, Shanahan signed Brian Hoyer as his bridge QB (he was benched after six starts), and Shanahan didn’t seriously consider Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes or Clemson’s Deshaun Watson with the No. 2 pick because he wanted Kirk Cousins in free agency in 2018. That year, he traded up into the third round to grab C.J. Beathard (career record: 210), the only QB he has drafted as a head coach. Now, three years after signing off on giving Garoppolo a contract that briefly made him the NFL’s highestpaid player, he tacitly acknowledges Garoppolo isn’t the longterm answer.
In summary: Hang on to Garoppolo in case Shanahan selects a modernday Mike Phipps.
49ers are in a unique position
Unlike most teams who earn the No. 3 pick with ineptitude, the 49ers don’t have a subpar starting quarterback who is part of a wretched roster.
They are less than 14 months from playing in a Super Bowl with Garoppolo as their starter. And they appear poised to contend again after last season’s injurythinned disappointent. That means they don’t have to see whether Fields, Lance or Jones can beat the odds and become the first rookie QB to start in a Super Bowl.
Instead, the 49ers can patiently develop their massive investment.
That approach has worked well for Kansas City with Mahomes, 25, who already has been an NFL and Super Bowl MVP. In 2017, when the Chiefs were coming off a 124 season and had a capable starter (Alex Smith), they exercised patience: They had Mahomes sit despite moving up to select him No. 10 with a trade package that included a future firstround pick.
Of course, it’s more common for NFL teams to start their highly drafted QBs as rookies, with mixed results.
The last team to draft a QB at No. 3, the 2018 Jets, made Darnold their seasonopening starter when they were coming off consecutive 511 seasons. Three years later, the Jets, who went 214 last season, are expected to select Wilson with the No. 2 pick and trade Darnold.
If Garoppolo produces while the rookie sits, the 49ers would have two QBs with significant trade value entering 2022. And dealing Garoppolo, coming off a stellar season, would recoup one of the two future firstround picks they relinquished Friday.
Who’s the No. 2?
Let’s say Fields, Lance or Jones is a savant who immediately absorbs Shanahan’s complex offense, perhaps after being limited to a virtual offseason program, and humiliates Garoppolo by how easily he outclasses him in training camp.
Trade Garoppolo, right? Wrong. Not unless the 49ers add a capable secondstring QB.
One of the NFL’s most important positions is backup QB (just ask the 2018 and 2020 49ers). And the 49ers, if they started the rookie and traded Garoppolo, would back up the rookie with … Josh Rosen or Josh Johnson?
That’s not a plan. Not for a contending team that could select either Fields or Lance, mobile QBs who might be prone to flee the pocket as rookies, increasing their injury risk.
Adding a backup QB in free agency? That landscape is barren.
Money isn’t an issue
In the above scenario, the 49ers would have Garoppolo count $26.4 million against the salary cap this season to hold a clipboard.
And that would be OK. The 49ers aren’t in a financial bind. They have the NFL’s ninthmost cap space ($19.7 million), according to OverTheCap.com, which is enough to sign their draft class and give linebacker Fred Warner an extension.
The 49ers will need the cap room in 2022. That’s when left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle and defensive lineman Arik Armstead will count $50.2 million against the cap, about $26 million more than in 2021.
And that’s when the 49ers, after keeping Garoppolo for a season, can trade him and create roughly that amount ($25.6 million) in cap space.