Dry and difficult months ahead
Peak snowpack meager — water may be rationed
California’s wet season is coming to a close without a muchsought “March miracle” storm, setting the stage for a painful escalation of drought in the coming months.
The April 1 snow survey, which measures the peak accumulation of snow in the Sierra and southern Cascades just before it melts, will show only about 60% of average snowpack. California relies on this snow to fill its rivers and streams, to help keep forests and grasslands from burning catastrophically, and to provide up to a third of the state’s water.
The grim survey results expected Thursday, which mark a second straight year of significantly dry conditions, reinforce concerns about a difficult fire season ahead and bolster the expanding calls for water conservation.
Already, much of California’s farm country faces imminent water cutbacks while several
communities, including Marin County and parts of Napa, Sonoma and Santa Clara counties, are asking customers for voluntary reductions. A few cities have enacted mandatory cuts, and others are considering similarly stringent measures.
“We’re comparing this year a lot, hydrologically speaking, to 20142015, which was the height of the drought,” said Chris Orrock, spokesman for the California Department of Water Resources, which conducts the snow surveys to gauge water supplies. “Water is a finite resource that we have to be sure we’re using as efficiently and as wisely as we can.”
One of the biggest similarities to last decade’s fiveyear drought, which triggered unprecedented and sometimes inconvenient rationing, is how low water levels are dropping behind the state’s big dams. Reservoir supplies, which are piped hundreds of miles across California, provide most of the water for the state’s agriculture industry and a big portion for many cities.
“When I look at reservoir levels, it’s like it’s 2014ish,” said Jay Lund, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis and director of the school’s Center for Watershed Sciences.
The state’s largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, on Wednesday contained only 65% of the water it typically holds this time of year while Lake Oroville held 53% and Folsom Lake had 58%.
The snowpack that nourishes these reservoirs, while low, is more than what accumulated during the worst years of the last drought. The April 2015 snow survey, for example, recorded just 5% of average snowpack. Still, many reservoirs, including Shasta, Oroville and Folsom, are coming out of this wet season with less water than they did six years ago, meaning they need more snowmelt to catch up. Total precipitation in many areas has lagged even what it was during last decade’s drought years. The storms this past winter have generally been colder, which translated to more snow, but they often delivered less rain.
In California’s far north, which contributes most to statewide water supplies, precipitation since Oct. 1 is on track to be the secondlowest for the water year ending Sept. 30 in more than a century of state recordkeeping. Only the 197677 water year was drier. Currently, the seconddriest water year was last year.
Similarly dry conditions extend to the Bay Area. San
Francisco, if it gets less than 0.6 inches of rain through June 30, would record its thirdlowest precipitation for the JulythroughJune rain year in at least 150 years, according to Golden Gate Weather Services. The city had received 8.76 inches of rain for the season as of Wednesday, about 41% of average for the date. The 185051 season was the city’s driest followed by 197576.
California typically gets the bulk of its rain in the winter and little in late spring and summer.
The scant precipitation this past winter prompted the California Department of Water Resources last week to lower this year’s projected allocation for customers of the State Water Project’s reservoirs to just 5% of what’s requested. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which also manages a network of reservoirs, said last week that many of its customers will get no water until further notice.
The State Water Resources Control Board, meanwhile, has warned the state’s 40,000 water rights holders, basically any person or water agency drawing water from a river or reservoir, that they could face cuts.
Such measures mean cities and farms will increasingly have to turn to alternative supplies, such as groundwater and stormwater runoff, as well as buy water from agencies with greater reserves. Those with less money and fewer options face the biggest challenges.
On Thursday, state water officials are scheduled to trek to Phillips Station on Highway 50 south of Lake Tahoe to take snow measurements and officially announce the April 1 snowpack results. The site is one of more than 260 snow courses that factor into the monthly survey.
As of Wednesday, state snowpack was 60% of the historical average for the date. The southern Sierra stood at 42% of average, the central Sierra was at 64% of average, and the north state was at 67% of average.
The dry conditions have left California’s landscape ripe for burning, intensifying the potential for more wildfire.
This week, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced plans to hire 1,399 additional state firefighters, at a cost of $81 million. The expanded force at the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will work proactively to reduce combustible vegetation in highrisk areas as well as fight wildfires. They’re due by the end of May.
“It wasn’t quite the Miracle March that we were hoping for this spring,” said Cal Fire Battalion Chief Jon Heggie. “We plan for the worst and hope for the best.”