QBs selected early in draft often don’t live up to the hype
Picking a quarterback in the first round of the NFL draft is a coin flip.
Actually, the odds might be considerably worse.
Only 42% of quarterbacks selected in the first round have played well enough to be signed to a second contract with the team that picked them, and the probabilities get even lower when you consider the 49ers’ position this year.
The 49ers will choose third, after moving up nine spots by trading to Miami their firstround picks in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and a thirdround selection in 2022. They can nab one of the remaining quarterbacks after the consensus believes the Jaguars will grab Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and the Jets will take BYU’s
Zach Wilson with the top two picks.
In all likelihood, the 49ers will opt for Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Alabama’s Mac Jones or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. When the quarterbacks go off the board in the first round, it will make quite a bit of history that might predict some of the future.
Only twice have quarterbacks been chosen with the top three picks, and only three times have at least five quarterbacks been selected in the first round. The fivequarterback first rounds offered a lot more promise than the topthreepick drafts.
In 1999, Cleveland opened the draft by selecting Tim Couch, who was released five years later. With the No. 2 pick, Philadelphia opted for Donovan McNabb, who was selected to six Pro Bowls. At No. 3, Cincinnati then took Akili Smith, who played more in Europe and Canada than he did in the NFL.
In 1971, New England took Jim Plunkett, who, two teams later, became efficient for the Raiders. No. 2 was Archie Manning and No. 3 was Dan Pastorini.
The jury is still out on the 2018 draft, in which Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson were picked in the first round, and the other 1999 firstrounders continued the mixed bag with Dante Culpepper and Cade McNown.
The 1983 draft, however, delivered some of its promise. After John Elway and Todd Blackledge went with the first two picks, Hall of Famer Jim Kelly was chosen third. Also chosen in that first round were Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien, and Dan Marino slipped to the sixth quarterback and 27th player drafted.
Some suggest that this draft might be similar to 1983’s.
Even after Lawrence and Wilson, Jones had one of the best collegiate seasons ever in leading the nation in quarterback rating, passing yards and completion percentage. Fields had 63 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing scores in his last 22 games. Lance threw 28 for touchdowns without an interception in 2019.
Florida’s Kyle Trask was a Heisman Trophy finalist, and Stanford’s Davis Mills was so good that K.J. Costello transferred to Mississippi State. The state of Texas offers abundant talent in Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond, SMU’s Shane Buechele and Texas’ Sam Ehlinger. Then there are Georgia’s Jamie Newman, Arkansas’ Feleipe Franks and Notre Dame’s Ian Book.
Take your pick. It’ll still be a coin flip.
In 2000, Chad Pennington was the first quarterback chosen, and the 49ers took the second at the position (Giovanni Carmazzi with the 65th pick overall). Four more quarterbacks were chosen before Tom Brady went No. 199 in the sixth round to New England.
Word has it that New England landed on heads.