California exodus? UC survey says no

Despite California’s first recorded population loss and steady reports of highprofile companies and residents leaving the state, studies from the University of California concluded there’s no exodus occurring.

A UC San Diego survey released Wednesday of more than 3,000 residents found that 23% are seriously thinking of leaving the state, down from 24% in a 2019 poll. Another 26% were giving some consideration to moving out, down from 28% in 2019.

Only 19% of residents in the Bay Area were seriously thinking of leaving, lower than 22.4% in Los Angeles, 29% in the Central Valley and 37% in Northern California outside the Bay Area. San Diego and Orange County residents had the lowest rate of any region at 16.7%.

“Despite the popular notion of unhappy Californians leaving the state en masse, our robust research shows there is actually no exodus,” Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department at UC San Diego and lead researcher on the survey, said in a statement. “Most residents say that they still believe in the California Dream.”

Those making more than $150,000 annually

had the most positive views of the state, with 78% agreeing that the “California Dream works for people like me” and 59% believing the state will become a better place to live for today’s children. Middleincome respondents making between $50,000 and $99,999 were the least optimistic.

The online survey was conducted between April 15 and May 8 through the tech firm Lucid’s Fulcrum platform. The survey has a margin of error of 2%.

Other surveys have found a higher percentage of Bay Area residents looking to leave. The Bay Area Council, a businessbacked group, found 47% of 1,000 Bay Area voters polled were planning to leave the region within the next few years, with 88% of them planning to leave California.

Other UC studies also concluded that data doesn’t support allegations of an exodus.

A UCLA study from February on census data through 2019 found that while moveouts have increased since 2012, they’re at a similar level to the mid2000s. Americans between ages 25 to 39 are moving at around twice the rate as older people.

A third study that tracked consumer credit data also found “no evidence of a pronounced exodus” during the pandemic. While San Francisco saw a sharp increase in people leaving, around two thirds of people who left stayed in the Bay Area and 80% stayed in the state.