Redistricting: Southern California looks likeliest to lose congressional seat

WASHINGTON — On Thursday, a high-stakes game of musical chairs began for California’s congressional delegation, as the data that will determine which of them is left without a seat next year was officially released.

The Bay Area and Northern California appear to have gotten a reprieve from what could prompt nasty intraparty fighting, as the state’s lost congressional seat will almost certainly come from Southern California.

The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday released highly anticipated and long-delayed data that reveal the nation’s population at a block-by-block level. The figures in turn show where the population grew or shrunk, and thus where congressional districts may need to be redrawn. The agency had already released information earlier this year revealing that California would lose one of its 53 seats in the House, as the state grew more

slowly than the rest of the country over the last 10 years.

But Thursday’s data showed that the Greater Bay Area region, which includes Monterey and Santa Cruz, actually grew at a faster rate than the state and the rest of the country, at 8.3%, as did the Greater Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley regions, at 9.6% and 8.4%, respectively.

The census figures will also be used to redraw seat boundaries for the state Senate and Assembly, which, as with congressional districts, often cross county lines. Of greatest interest to Bay Area residents: Faster population growth in Alameda, Contra Costa and Solano counties will likely mean additional representation, while Sonoma and Napa could see their district boundaries redrawn to compensate for relatively slower expansion.

Where growth lagged most statewide was in the Northern California region — a vast 11county area stretching from the Oregon border to north of Sacramento and from the Pacific to Nevada — at 2.1%, and Southern California, stretching from San Luis Obispo to the Mexican border, at 4.6%. Both were well below California’s overall growth rate of 6.1% and the country’s rate of 7.4%.

The results put Southern California in the crosshairs for a lost seat because congressional districts must represent an equal number of people, roughly 760,000 based on the results of the 2020 census. Though far Northern California grew slowly in percentage terms, it is already so sparsely populated, with just over 700,000 people, that the boundaries of the three congressional districts containing the region’s 11 counties won’t need to be significantly redrawn.

Southern California, however, is home to nearly 23 million people and over two dozen congressional districts, making it the likeliest place to remove a seat. A Democratic political operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because analysis was still being done before an official statement was released, said the early read of the data confirmed Southern California would lose a district.

An analysis of available information before the official data was released by Claremont McKenna College’s Rose Institute pinpointed Los Angeles County as likely to be the slowest-growing area, specifically.

But determining the specific congressional boundaries will still take months.

A 2008 ballot measure created a nonpartisan redistricting commission made up of 14 citizens: five Democrats, five Republicans and four unaffiliated with a political party. That commission has already been selected and has been holding regular meetings, and will sprint to redraw districts before the February 2022 candidate filing deadline. The California Constitution sets Aug. 15 as the date maps must be drawn by, but the state Supreme Court extended the deadline last year given delays in census data.

Commission Chair Linda Akutagawa said in a Thursday statement that the way the Census Bureau released its data will take weeks to format and analyze. She said the group intends to ask the Supreme Court for a Jan. 14 deadline for final maps.

Redistricting takes into account raw population figures, but also factors in natural communities and the representation of key constituencies, such as racial groups. Currently, 43 of California’s 53 congressional seats are held by Democrats, with only a handful of politically swing districts located mainly in Orange County and the Central Valley. Thursday’s data shows California continues to be one of the most diverse states in the nation, with Hispanic and Latino people now the largest chunk of the population, at 39.4%, whites at 34.7% and Asians at 15.1%.

While California’s redistricting process could get ugly as lawmakers fight to keep their seats under the new boundaries, it will likely be less politically charged than in states where the process is controlled by partisan state lawmakers. The 2022 midterms are already expected to be an intense contest to control the House, as Democrats currently hold the majority by only a slim margin and the president’s party historically loses seats in the next election.

The Cook Political Report estimated that redistricting alone could shift three to four seats to Republican control.

In addition to California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each will lose one seat. Texas will gain two seats and Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each will gain one.