Road to title goes through Lambeau
Top-seeded Packers only team to win all home games
Wild-card weekend in the NFC pits the Eagles at the Buccaneers on Saturday, the sixthseed 49ers at the No. 3 Cowboys on Sunday and the Cardinals at the Rams on Monday night. Top-seeded Green Bay gets the opening-week bye.
1. GREEN BAY (13-4)
Why they’ll prevail: The Packers can get to the Super Bowl without ever leaving Lambeau Field — and they were the only team to not lose a home game this season. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers has thrown 20 TD passes without an interception over his past seven games, and he says the fractured pinky toe that bothered him the second half of the season is starting to feel better. The O-line got star LT David Bakhtiari and C Josh Myers back for the regular-season finale. CB Jaire Alexander and OLB Za’Darius Smith are expected to be back for the playoffs.
Why they’ll derail: A defense that seemed much improved under new coordinator Joe Barry for much of the season has started to slump. After allowing 18 points per game during an 8-2 start, the Packers have given up 27.3 points per game over their past nine. Special teams has been a major weakness all season. Slow starts also have been a problem. The Packers have been outscored 84-51 in the first quarter.
2. TAMPA BAY (13-4)
Why they’ll prevail: The defending champs haven’t been as dominant as some people envisioned when the team defied the odds by returning every starter from last season, but it hasn’t been because of Tom Brady and a potent offense that averaged 406 yards and 30.1 points. At age 44, and in his 22nd season, Brady has had one of his best years, leading the league in completions (a single-season record 485), attempts (719), passing yards (5,136) and TD passes (43). He’s just the third QB in the past 30 years to lead the league in all four categories.
Why they’ll derail: The dominant defense led by Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and Devin White peaked late last season, keying an impressive postseason run. Injuries have made it difficult to build on that success. CBs Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Richard Sherman spent time on IR. Safeties Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield Jr. have been in and out of the lineup. And while the run defense yields an NFC-low 92.5 yards per game, opponents have enjoyed more success on the ground lately with LBs David (foot), Barrett (knee) and Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder) ailing.
4. L.A. RAMS (12-5)
Why they’ll prevail: The Rams’ offense is good and getting better, with WR Cooper Kupp’s historic season and QB Matthew Stafford’s big-play ability pushing Los Angeles to five wins in six games down the stretch. The Rams’ passing game ranks fifth in the NFL with 273.1 yards per game. After two years of stagnation, L.A. is scoring points in bunches while controlling the ball with a balanced approach. The Rams seem capable of outscoring just about any opponent that has defensive flaws to exploit, particularly with a revitalized rushing attack led by Sony Michel and Cam Akers.
Why they’ll derail: The Rams’ linebackers and defensive backs beyond Jalen Ramsey are simply not at all impressive, and they’re getting worse: leading tackler Jordan Fuller (ankle) is out for the season, further depleting the secondary with the departure of its top safety. From targeting David Long or Nick Scott in coverage to forcing LB Troy Reeder to stop plays in the middle of the field, good opponents have racked up big numbers on the Rams’ defense.
5. ARIZONA (11-6)
Why they’ll prevail: The best news for the Cardinals is that they’re going on the road. Arizona had a remarkable 8-1 record away from home this season, including a win over the Rams in Week 4. Arizona is a team that doesn’t have a ton of holes when it’s playing well and QB Kyler Murray has been one of the best in the league, completing nearly 70% of his passes. The Cardinals could also get a huge boost if three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt is able to return from a shoulder injury.
Why they’ll derail: Arizona is 1-4 over its past five games, 4-6 over the past 10 and hasn’t looked much like a team ready to go on a deep playoff run. Arizona’s offense hasn’t looked the same since three-time All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins sustained a knee injury.
7. PHILADELPHIA (9-8)
Why they’ll prevail: Dualthreat QB Jalen Hurts leads the league’s best rushing offense, but also has talented playmakers in WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. Running the ball effectively with Hurts and a stable of productive backs, including Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell, could keep Tom Brady and Tampa’s high-powered offense on the sideline. The Bucs can’t score as much if the Eagles control the clock and keep Brady off the field.
Why they’ll derail: The Eagles were 0-6 against opponents that made the playoffs, 1-7 against teams that finished with a winning record. Rookie coach Nick Sirianni is coaching his first playoff game and Hurts, who played in big games in college, is starting for the first time in the postseason.