Where virus cases are rising and where they are falling

15 counties in state report rising case counts, but another 5 reported significant drop-offs

California has been stuck in a month-long plateau of COVID-19 cases, but that doesn’t mean counties everywhere have been stagnant. In fact, the virus is spreading more rapidly than ever before in some parts of the state, while in others, it has receded to levels not seen since spring.

Overall, the average 3,300 cases averaged per day in California over the past week are the most since Sept. 27, but compared to two weeks ago — three days earlier — the number Thursday is about 6% lower. The daily average of cases hasn’t exceeded 3,600 or dipped below 3,150 per day since Sept. 9, according to data compiled by this news organization.

At the county level, however, there is more nuance.

For example, there are 15 counties in state where the daily average of cases was higher Thursday than it was two weeks ago, according to this news organization’s analysis. That includes major metropolises such as Los Angeles and San Diego counties, as well as new hotspots in previously untouched rural areas, like

Shasta and Tehama counties, both of which moved backward this week in the state’s reopening tiers.

Elsewhere, many other counties have continued to see dramatic reductions in cases and hospitalizations.

In the Bay Area, there were 100 fewer patients hospitalized as of Wednesday than two weeks prior — a 24% decrease to 317 active hospitalizations in the region. In Alameda County, hospitalizations have fallen 28% in the past two weeks to their lowest point since April 4 and daily cases are down 40%. Alameda, San Francisco and Santa Clara counties all reported sevenday positivity rates below 2%. Overall, the daily average of cases in the region has fallen 20% in two weeks to about 463 per day, its fewest since mid-June.

The most dramatic increase has come in Shasta County, where the sevenday average of cases is now

higher than San Francisco. The rural county of about 180,000 people in Northern California has increased its daily case count by more than threefold in two weeks. On Wednesday, there were more cases in Shasta County than any county in the Bay Area, despite a fraction of the population. By Thursday, the daily average had soared to more than 48 per day from about 14 per day two weeks ago.

On Wednesday, Los Angeles County reported its most cases in six weeks, followed by another 1,220 on Thursday. For most of September and the start of October, the seven- day average there had been below 1,000 cases per day, but on Thursday it climbed to 1,042 — its highest point since Sept. 6.

Los Angeles is one of four Southern California counties among the 15 counties with rising case counts.

The list, which doesn’t include any counties averaging less than 1 case per day, includes: Butte (11.9 cases per day; +3.8% vs.

2 weeks ago), Del Norte (3.29; + 477%), El Dorado (10.6; +85%), Los Angeles (1,042; +2.2%), Orange (182; + 4.2%), Riverside (275.4; +27.8%), San Diego (285; +1%), Shasta (48.6; +247%), Solano (33.3; +4%), Sonoma (72.1; +26.9%), Stanislaus (44.8; +9.4%), Tehama (10; +40%), Tulare (56.6; +4.2%), Yolo (11.7; +34.4%) and Yuba (5.6; +25.7%).

Five counties have reduced their case counts by at least 40% in the past two weeks: Imperial (21.7 cases; - 46.4%), Fresno (51.9; - 43.1%), San Francisco (31; - 42.4%), Kings (39.1; - 42%) and Alameda (68.6; - 40%).

A similar microcosm is playing out at the national level. The U.S. had been on a similar plateau to California’s, but the national case count has now begun to rise — up about 12% in the past two weeks, according to data collected by the New York Times.

Cases are on the rise in more than half the states in the country, according to the Times and Johns Hopkins University. On Thursday, the U.S. reported

more cases than any day since mid-August, when the seven- day average was about 13% higher than it is now.

In California, there were another 80 deaths reported on Thursday, including 10 in the Bay Area. After an eye-popping total Wednesday, the region has reported close to its deadliest week

of the pandemic: 100 deaths over the past week, or an average of about 14 per day.

Nationally, the death toll climbed to more than 212,000, according to Johns Hopkins, while the number of Americans who have contracted the virus now exceeds 7.6 million — both figures are the highest of any country in the world.