IF 49ERS HADN’T SAT DOWN SMITH
49ers’ Smith-to-Kaepernick QB switch had ripple effects across the NFL, social justice and beyond
In the final week of November 2012, then- 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh made a bold call. He replaced starting quarterback Alex Smith — who had helmed the team to a 6-2 start but had suffered a concussion two weeks prior — with backup Colin Kaepernick, who had performed well in Smith’s stead.
The move was second-guessed but it worked. Kaepernick — with his strong arm, aggressive mindset, and incredible running ability — helped lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl that season.
But that quarterback change also started a chain of events that led to a new civil rights movement, an all-time great comeback story, and perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history beating the Niners the next time San Francisco made a Super Bowl.
Eight years later, Smith is set to take on the 49ers for only the second time since he was traded away following the 2012 season. And it made me wonder: What
would have happened had Smith not been benched?
There are literally countless ways things could have changed, but if you’ll indulge me, this is how I think it would have all gone down.
2012
DECEMBER >> Smith returns to the lineup for the Dec. 2 game against the Rams in St. Louis and is hyper-efficient, completing 20 of 25 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns. The Niners go 4-1 the rest of the way, with the only loss coming to the Patriots in New England, and they enter the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
THE 2012 PLAYOFFS >> Smith cannot keep up with
Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Divisional Round, and Jim Harbaugh’s decision to give Kaepernick some run — and Kap’s big runs — in the second half is the only thing that kept the game from being a total laugher. THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL >> The 49ers will not reach their ceiling if Smith is the quarterback. Still, Harbaugh wants to keep with Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. A few weeks after the game, it’s reported that the Niners plan on having a fullfledged quarterback competition in training camp.
2013
MARCH >> At least that was the plan. The Browns, desperately seeking a competent quarterback, come in with a big offer: second-round picks in 2013 and 2014 to the 49ers for Smith. San Francisco passes on the quarterback battle and takes the picks. THE 2013 SEASON >> Smith stabilizes the Browns’ quarterback situation, leading Cleveland to a
7-9 record in 2013, despite playing behind an offensive line that makes him run for his life on every other down. There are a lot of highlights where Smith is “Kaepernick-like”. Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner keep their jobs for 2014 and Smith signs a new four-year contract with Cleveland.
The Niners are successful, but anger in the locker room over not going to Kaepernick in 2012 chips away at the relationship between the players and Harbaugh, which Harbaugh then projects onto anyone and everyone. There are rumors that the Niners coach will leave at the end of the season to take over the Dolphins in 2014. Any chance of that happening disintegrates after the Dolphins’ bullying scandal comes to light. You can’t put Harbaugh in charge there. Still, Harbaugh is clearly looking for a way out, and the Niners’ brass seems keen to give it to him after a season of toxicity.
That toxicity comes through as the Niners lose to the Packers, again, in the divisional round. That Aaron Rodgers guy is good — so good that he leads the Packers to a second Super Bowl victory, one more than that guy he replaced, Brett Favre.
2014
JANUARY >> Harbaugh heads to Florida after all, except it’s Tampa Bay, not Miami. The Bucs throw a first-round pick San Francisco’s way to steal Harbaugh — a deal that Jed York doesn’t think twice about.
The Niners interview a few outside folks, but offensive coordinator Greg Roman is named Harbaugh’s successor. San Francisco doesn’t want to blow it all up — this is a good team, after all, and they think they have a franchise quarterback in Kaepernick. San Francisco do lose Vic Fangio, though — he heads to Chicago. Ed Donatell becomes the Niners’ defensive coordinator.
FEBRUARY >> Kyle Shanahan is hired as Mike Zimmer’s offensive coordinator in Minnesota. The Vikings waste no time in trading a third-round pick to Washington for 25-yearold quarterback Kirk
Cousins.
APRIL >> The 49ers trade the No. 35 pick in the NFL Draft to the Chargers, who — with Philip Rivers entering the last year of his contract — select Derek Carr. One pick later, the Raiders take Teddy Bridgewater.
Kansas City uses its second-round pick on a young quarterback, too: Some kid out of Eastern Illinois named Jimmy Garoppolo. THE 2014 SEASON >> The Browns fail to build on their momentum, going 5-11 on the year. Smith misses four games with an injury, but he wasn’t all that effective when he was at the helm. Questions about hanging on to the triumvirate — head coach, offensive coordinator, quarterback — arise in Cleveland.
Kansas City tries Garoppolo for the last six games of the season. In Andy
Reid and Doug Pederson’s Big XII-inspired spread offense, he impresses. Kansas City plans on starting the young Garoppolo in 2015.
Minnesota shows a serious spark with Cousins, going 9-7 and scoring nearly 400 points. Shanahan is interviewed for head coaching jobs, but teams are scared of putting a 35-year- old in charge.
Meanwhile, the 49ers go 10- 6 in their first season under Greg Roman. Kaepernick regresses quite a bit — completing just above 60 percent of his throws — but Roman’s rushing attack keeps the Niners’ offense as a middle- of-the-pack unit. The elite defense holds together for another year.
In October, Lieutenant Gov. Gavin Newsom said on KGO radio that he hopes he and Governor Jerry Brown’s bid for reelection in October “goes a lot better than Kaepernick’s bid to stay on as the 49ers’ quarterback”. Given the lack of any real campaign news, the story becomes the topic of the day. When asked about its — which Newsom tried to pass off as a joke — Kaepernick says that his only focus is on football and that he’s not a voter.
The Niners do make the playoffs, though, beating the Cowboys in the wildcard round setting up a showdown with — you guessed it — the Packers.
This time, San Francisco gets the best of
Green Bay. A week later, in Seattle, the Seahawks win the NFC Championship Game over San Francisco in emphatic fashion.
Still, the move to Roman looks like the smart one in Santa Clara.
Harbaugh’s Tampa Bay — tough and overachieving in Year 1, even with Mike Glennon at quarterback — wins the NFC South at 8-8 but loses in the first round to the Lions.
2015
JANUARY >> Shanahan interviews for his dream job — head coach of the Denver Broncos — but doesn’t land the gig. Atlanta, Buffalo, and Chicago sniff around as well, but no one can pull the trigger on the youngster. Becoming a head coach is inevitable but not immediate.
MAY >> Kaepernick founds a charity for homeless youths in the Bay Area and pressures Newsom to back it. With the state’s support, Kap’s Kids quickly becomes one of the most impactful player charities in professional sports.
THE 2015 SEASON >> Garoppolo plays well in his first season as a starter, but not well enough to push Kansas City into the playoffs, finishing at 7-9. The seat is starting to get hot around Reid.
The Buccaneers descend into madness. Harbaugh — trying not to make the same mistake he made with Smith and Kaepernick — runs through a slew of backups after a 1- 4 start. It doesn’t work. The Bucs only win five games.
Smith is benched in Week 8 in Cleveland and the Browns finish 3-13. It’s a house cleaning in Ohio, but at least the Browns have the No. 1 overall pick.
The Vikings thrive in 2016, and Minnesota — with a top-5 offense and defense — takes over as the class of the NFC in the regular season. Their showdown with the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game is legendary, but ultimately the Carolina pass rush is too much for Cousins. Still, Shanahan is undoubtedly going to get a head coaching job in the offseason.
The 49ers go 7-9 — Kaepernick is being found out, Roman is becoming a predictable play-caller, but the defense, led by Donatell and linebacker Chris Borland, is still one of the NFL’s best.
2016
FEBRUARY >> The Dolphins hire Shanahan as their head coach.
MARCH >> Smith signs with Harbaugh and the Buccaneers. Reunited and it feels so good.
APRIL >> The Niners can’t work out a contract extension with Kaepernick, so they hedge as he heads into the final year of his contract by taking Dak Prescott with the 121st pick in the draft. Now, the Niners have a backup plan but don’t rock the boat too hard.
THE 2016 SEASON >> Shanahan turns Ryan Tannehill into an MVP candidate in his play-action-heavy offense. Miami goes 10- 6 and makes the playoffs in his first year in charge.
The Chiefs finally put a good team around Garoppolo, and Kansas City thrives, winning 12 games. They ultimately miss out on a first-round bye because of a seventh tiebreaker, and then fall in the first round.
The Buccaneers get back to respectability with Smith at the helm, going 8-8 on the season. The Bucs don’t make the playoffs, but there’s hype around Harbaugh and his tough-as-nails team once again.
It all falls apart in Santa Clara. Kaepernick loses his job in Week 9 to Colt McCoy and then, three games later, Prescott. Kap makes a bit of a fuss about being blindsided by Roman’s decision, but that’s a one- day news story.
A few weeks later, Roman is fired after a six-win season.
Still, Kaepernick is the 49ers’ nominee for the NFL’s Walter Payton Man of the Year award. He ultimately loses out to Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
2017
JANUARY >> The 49ers interview Vikings offensive coordinator Sean McVay to be their head coach, but instead opt to hire Stanford’s David Shaw, who is given a five-year, $50 million contract and full control over the Niners’ football operations.
Shaw’s general manager hire? Stanford alum John Lynch.
MARCH >> The Bucs are linked to Kaepernick — what is old is new again — but he signs with the Dallas Cowboys as a veteran backup to Tony Romo. Jerry Jones talks it up like he might take over the starting job any minute, though.
APRIL >> Shaw and Lynch keep the Stanford thing going and select Christian McCaffrey with the No. 7 overall pick.
The Saints, looking to move on from Drew Brees, take Patrick Mahomes with the No. 11 pick. Brees isn’t cool with the move. THE 2017 SEASON >> Miami keeps rolling with a 13win season, and a Week 17 win over the Patriots in Foxboro gives them the AFC East crown. The two teams meet again in the AFC Championship Game, but Tom Brady gets the best of Shanahan and Tannehill there.
The Bucs bottom out once again, as Harbaugh’s flirtations with the University of Texas and a Smith shoulder injury ruin any chance of making the playoffs. Still, in an NFL that is becoming more and more smash-mouth, Smith is now seen as a viable starter again with his contract expiring at the end of the season.
The Chiefs win the AFC West with another 12-win season. But, again, Garoppolo falters in the playoffs. There are rumblings that they could move on from him.
The 49ers start slow, but Prescott, McCaffrey, and DeVante Parker make an excellent trio on offense. The defense — rebuilding on the fly — is the thing that takes a while to click, but it does so late in the season. The Niners are viewed as a team on the rise going into 2018.
Kaepernick sees limited snaps behind Romo. The Cowboys win nine games but miss the playoffs.
2018
JANUARY >> Harbaugh takes the Texas job, even though he wants Les Miles’ gig at Michigan and makes it known to everyone. Michigan doesn’t bite. At his introductory press conference in Austin, Harbaugh throws up a peace sign instead of the horns. He’s never forgiven.
MARCH >> Smith signs a one-year deal with the Oakland Raiders, expecting to be the starter.
APRIL >> The Raiders take Josh Allen with the No. 4 overall pick and Mark Davis declares him the quarterback of the future.
The 49ers take Derwin James in the NFL Draft, bolstering their already strong defense.
THE 2018 SEASON >> Texas goes 6- 6 in Harbaugh’s first year.
Tannehill’s early-season leg injury and the loss of defensive coordinator Raheem Morris (who goes to Houston) undercuts the ascendant Dolphins, who struggle and finish 7-9 on the season.
Kaepernick takes over for an injured Romo in Week 13. He’s capable but uninspiring. The Cowboys finish 7-9, too.
The Chiefs falter as well. Defenses have figured out Garoppolo and Kansas
City goes 8-8.
The 49ers win 12 games and claim the NFC West, but fall in the second round to — you guessed it — their unquestioned arch-rival, the Packers. Still, this is an excellent squad all around.
After a fake camp battle, the Raiders start Allen in Week 1, leaving Smith livid. He gets his revenge, though, as he comes in for an injured Allen (out for the season) in Week 7 and leads the hapless Raiders to six improbable wins down the stretch. Still though, the Raiders are committed to Allen. There are rumors that Davis wants a new coach, too. And he’s looking into the television booth to find him.
2019
JANUARY >> The Raiders hire Tony Dungy.
Romo retires and takes over Dungy’s NBC seat. Jones says on his podcast that Kaepernick — a free agent — is not the heir apparent in Dallas, though, as the Cowboys don’t extend a new contract.
Brees — feeling the heat from Mahomes — follows Romo’s lead and retires, too, taking over the Monday Night Football analyst role. It had not been the same since Jon Gruden left for a second stint in Tampa Bay.
FEBRUARY >> Smith signs with the Chiefs. Yet another team and quarterback battle for No. 11.
Kaepernick links up with Greg Roman once again — this time with the Giants, where Roman has just been hired the offensive coordinator. Kap is named the starter.
APRIL >> The Lions take Nick Bosa with the No. 1 overall pick.
Kyler Murray is drafted in the third round by the Bengals, but opts to play for the Oakland A’s. Why the fall? Well, the NFL is yet to have a successful
Air Raid quarterback (unless you consider Garoppolo a success).
THE 2019 SEASON >> Kaepernick and Roman can’t find their magic in New York, and the Giants follow the path of their stadium partners — the Jets — and embrace the tank, playing undrafted free agent C. J. Beathard for the final 10 games.
Smith beats out Garoppolo for the starting job in Kansas City. Garoppolo is traded to New England at the end of the preseason for a second-round pick.