Key measurement metrics drop in Santa Cruz County

SANTA CRUZ >> Earlier in the week, Gov. Gavin Newsom teased during an address that a handful of the counties in California would be moving to a less restrictive tier. With test positivity and adjusted case rates trending down, those in Santa Cruz were hopeful. But at least for one more week, the county remains in the purple or “widespread” tier of the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

The shifting of the tiers depends on three main metrics: the adjusted case rate, the positivity rate and the health equity quartile positivity rate.

The adjusted case rate is a seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 in any given jurisdiction with a seven-day lag, according to the California Department of Public Health. To move to red, the county needs to record between 4.0 and 7.0 daily new cases per 100,000 as its adjusted case rate; as of Tuesday, Santa Cruz County recorded an adjusted case rate of 8.6.

The testing positivity rate, a countywide measurement, is the seven-day average of all COVID-19 tests performed that are positive; the health equity quartile positivity rate is the seven-day average of positivity rates in the county’s most disproportionately-impacted neighborhoods. In Santa Cruz County, most of the disproportionately impacted neighborhoods are in South County, particularly in Watsonville.

Santa Cruz County needs to record a positivity rate of 5% to 8% and a health equity quartile positivity rate of 5.3% to 8%; at this time, the state shows a 2.9% positivity rate and a 6.3% health equity quartile positivity rate. This means, according county spokesman Jason Hoppin, that if the adjusted case rate continues to trend down and the health equity quartile positivity rate lowers, the county could move to the red or “substantial” tier as early as Wednesday.

“If your health equity positivity rate is in an even lower tier, which means that ours would be in orange, you can go into the next tier right away,” Hoppin said, referencing San Mateo County’s ability to make that move this week. “We’ll be looking at that starting next week. We are pretty close if not over some of those triggers. It’s too early to say whether we’d (go into the red tier) next week or the week after, we don’t want to speculate.”

If both the adjusted case rate and the positivity rate are low enough to meet the red tier requirements but the health equity quartile positivity rate is not 5.2% or less — the threshold for the orange or “moderate” tier — the county will have to go two consecutive weeks with the lowered numbers before moving down to the red tier.

When the county does drop to the red tier, residents will be able to access establishments and activities that have been totally halted since moving into the purple tier in mid-November. Indoor dining and movie viewing can resume at a 25% capacity. Indoor workouts can proceed at gyms with 10% capacity.

“Everything is looking pretty good right now,” Hoppin said. “I think there’s some speculation about these variants that makes you feel good about how the vaccine works on (them).”

Vaccine Advancements

The county announced Monday that more residents are now eligible to be vaccinated. On Tuesday, Kaiser Permanente confirmed that it had started to vaccinate individuals in the area.

“We opened vaccination clinics in Scotts Valley and Watsonville earlier this month and continue to vaccinate health care workers, Kaiser Permanente members and members of the community 75 years and older, as vaccine supplies allow,” a Kaiser spokesperson said.

As Santa Cruz County rounds its way to 70,000 shots in the arm — according to the CDPH — its community partners as well as local multi-county entity health care providers like Dignity Health and Sutter Health are serving individuals 65 and older. Some providers even have agreements with occupation-based groups, such as Dignity Health — Dominican Hospital’s collaboration with the Santa Cruz County Office of Education.

“In the coming weeks, as new supplies allow, we are broadening availability in the 65 years and older age group starting with those at higher risk, and anticipate expanding to additional populations as approved by the state,” Kaiser Permanente told the Sentinel. “Our integrated system enables Kaiser Permanente to identify members as they become eligible and proactively contact them providing the information to make an appointment through our online system or by phone.”

To learn about how to get vaccinated in Santa Cruz County, visit santacruzhealth.org/coronavirusvaccine.