Local health officials are optimistic about virus tier progression

SANTA CRUZ >> Just one day after Santa Cruz County officially entered the red “substantial” tier, local health officials expressed confidence in the ability to continue to move down the tier system in the coming weeks.

“In the coming weeks we will almost surely, unless we have an unexpected surge, go to orange tier in three weeks,” County Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel said. “Then probably yellow tier shortly after that. The governor has announced he’s now working on a green tier. We have a lot to look forward to in the coming weeks.”

In order to move into the orange “moderate” tier and eventually the yellow “minimal” tier, the daily new case rate across the county needs to be

between one and 3.9 cases per 100,000 residents, or less than one respectively, according to the California Blueprint for a Safer Economy. Santa Cruz County is currently at 5.3 cases per 100,000 residents, which is well inside the red tier which ranges between a case rate of four and seven.

“We actually are meeting some orange and even yellow metrics, moving forward,” Newel said.

Currently, Santa Cruz County has two metrics that are eligible for lower tiers. The county’s case positivity rate is at 1.9% which is below the yellow tier requirement of less than 2%. Meanwhile, the county’s health equity quartile positivity rate is 3.7% which is right in the middle of the range for the orange tier, which requires the metric to be between 2.2% and 5.2%.

Newel suggests, however, that county residents just enjoy the red tier, for now which expands retail capacity 50%, indoor restaurant capacity 25%, and opens gyms at 10% and movie theaters at 25%. In order to move into the orange tier, a county must remain in the red tier for three consecutive weeks and have orange tier metrics for two consecutive weeks.

The county will be able to skip the two-week waiting period and drop to the orange tier early if it can get its health equity quartile positivity rate within the range for the yellow tier (less than 2%) and its adjusted case rate into the orange tier (1-3.9 cases) as well as its positive test rate drop to orange metrics (24.9%). If those happen, then the county can fall to the orange tier the following Tuesday, according to county spokesman Jason Hoppin.

San Mateo County managed this jump two weeks ago from the purple tier to the red tier.

There are currently only four counties that are lower than the red tier throughout the state. Plumas, Sierra and Mariposa counties are in the orange tier, and Alpine County sits in the yellow tier.

Health officials would not guarantee that the county would continue to move up the tiers and avoid falling back into the purple tier in the coming weeks. There are still too many questions surrounding the virus for them to be fully sure, Newel said. However, current trends give county health officials hope to continue moving toward less restrictive measures.

“Don’t throw caution to the wind, yet,” said Deputy Health Officer Dr. David Ghilarducci. “But, if we continue to behave as well as we are doing, to follow the rules that are set forth, then I think we’ll do fine.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom is also expected to adjust the state’s tier structure based on vaccinations in the health equity quartile, according to Newel.

“That will shift the case rates needed to be in each tier to our advantage,” Newel said.

The state also expects to expand vaccine eligibility. A new list of occupations is expected to be added to the eligibility list, according to Newel. The new list could see the addition of transit workers such as bus drivers and airline pilots, all custodial services, disaster service workers that were activated by the government and utility workers that respond to emergencies.

However, there is no indication when that expansion will be officially announced, Health Services Agency Director Mimi Hall said.

Eligibility will continue to expand Monday. On that day, vaccine eligibility will expand to those who are medically high-risk, the homeless population, incarcerated residents and staff that serve those populations.