Officials: Vaccine eligibility may generate frustration
SANTA CRUZ >> Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Thursday those 50 to 64 will be eligible for COVID-19 vaccination by April 1 and those 16 and older will be eligible by April 15.
But despite a gradual increase in vaccine supply through April, set to triple by June, Santa Cruz County health officials such as Deputy Health Officer Dr. Ghilarducci fear that more residents eligible for vaccination when supply has not yet met demand will cause even more anxiety around the process.
“We are concerned, with the expanded eligibility and not much expansion of vaccine supply, it’s probably going generate some frustration in people who are going to look for an appointment,” he said.
Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel confirmed the suspicion.
“There is no way we will be able to meet demand through the month of April with these new windows of opportunity opening,” she said.
Anecdotally, county spokesman Jason Hoppin added that the county has been hearing from those eligible for vaccination that cannot get an appointment from the start. The queries have not slowed, he added.
The county’s predictions are largely based on three factors, according to Ghilarducci and Newel: how fast clinics fill up when they are announced (supply over demand), the amount of vaccine that is currently available and will be available in the future and the number of inoculations conducted so far.
At this time, 36% of those age 16 and older in Santa Cruz County have been vaccinated either due to their occupation or medical necessities, Hoppin read from county data. Between those 16 and 64 years of age — an estimated 179,500 residents — one-fourth of individuals in the population have received at least one dose of the vaccine. That’s approximately 45,000 doses.
Specific to those 16 to 24, the county continues its trend in making better progress than the state, according to Ghilarducci. Approximately 9% of the least vaccinated age group has at least one dose of the Johnson & Johnson, Moderna or Pfizer vaccine — a figure that will increase going forward.
The California Department of Public Health on Thursday showed that 139,164 doses had been administered to Santa Cruz County residents between local health jurisdiction clinics and community partners, multi-county entity health providers and federally supported commercial pharmacy clinics.
Obedience in orange
With “all systems go” to enter the orange tier at midnight Wednesday, as Newel described the circumstance, there is no concrete evidence that cases will significantly go up in April with more restrictions being eased. According to modeling projections on which the the county relies, Ghilarducci said, a continued downward trend in cases is expected. But no one knows for sure
what will happen, as variants are being detected such as the B.1.1.7 or “UK variant” found in two local positive cases recently.
“The variants are concerning because they tend to spread more easily, so obviously as sectors open with more gatherings and less of a sense of vigilance that may come with this and better weather, fatigue… all the other things we’ve seen, there is a potential for more spread before we get more shots into arms,” Ghilarducci said.
“We really are in a race, but modeling does continue to be favorable.”
The county is working hard to triple its capacity, which would mean being prepared to administer at least 15,000 doses per week as it receives approximately 5,000 now, in order to avoid the same fate as parts of Europe.
“They have had to impose additional restrictions,” Ghilarducci said. “The intent is not to be in a yo-yo situation we have seen elsewhere. Our fingers are crossed.”
Multi-county entities in Santa Cruz County are working to carry the county through the race.
Kaiser Permanente has promised 1,000 doses per day seven days a week at Kaiser Permanente Arena, Newel said. This is a triumph in terms of inoculation efficiency.
To help minimize spread, residents should continue to follow social distancing precautions at least until there is more specific post-vaccination activity guidance. This means wearing face coverings, staying 6 feet apart in public spaces, keeping gatherings outdoors and avoiding travel beyond 120 miles from home.
“I would stress the importance of minding the travel advisory as we approach spring break, mostly because of worry of bringing the variants back home to California,” she said.
Newel said the county continues to be told that guidance for vaccinated and unvaccinated people is coming shortly. For the time being, the concept of safety in busy environments will be aided by sector-specific guidance such as outdoor live events, expected to come either Friday or Saturday, she said.
The health officials hope that transparency and relief will come through the county launch of My Turn and its appointment scheduler on March 29 and the onboarding of Blue Shield enhanced vaccine provider network launching in the coming weeks. County and community entities are currently being enrolled in the network; Salud Para La Gente is Santa Cruz County’s sole active provider as a federally qualified health center.
Health Services Agency Director Mimi Hall said that the Blue Shield partnership especially will help the county obtain more data around the incoming vaccine.
“They have promised that two to three weeks in advance we should know how much we are getting,” Hall said.