Can the A’s repeat as division champions?
The Oakland Athletics’ path back to an American League West division title will not be easy. But, they have the talent to shock the baseball world.
They stand atop a division that holds the most heralded hitter in baseball in Mike Trout with the Los Angeles Angels, a perennial postseason powerhouse in the Houston Astros, a budding young Seattle Mariners team with the reigning Rookie of the Year and ... the Texas Rangers.
The A’s soared to an AL West division title in 2020, their first since 2013, in the pandemic shortened 60game season. But their third straight postseason berth again came to an end short of the American League Championship Series. With at least a postseason series win over the Chicago White Sox to hang their hats on, the A’s are entering another year with the duo of Matt Chapman and Matt Olson ready to take another big step into their postseason dreams.
How do the A’s stack up in the toughest division in baseball? What are the key additions and biggest losses for each AL West team? Here is a look at how the division is shaping up in the hours leading up to Opening Day.
PECOTA PROJECTION >> 92-70 KEY ADDITIONS >> RHP Jake Odorizzi
KEY LOSSES >> OF George Springer, RHP Justin Verlander (IL)
OUR BREAKDOWN >> The Astros are getting win-projection love on the basic terms of returning most of their star position players and bolstering their bleeding pitching staff with a high-caliber right-handed starter in Odorizzi to go along with Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Christian Javier.
They lost some key players, though. Powerful leadoff hitter Springer signed a six-year, $150 million contract with the Blue Jays. They’ll also be without Cy Young winner Verlander for most of the season, at least, after the 38-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in October.
Even without those two, any roster that holds José Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley is a dangerous one. The A’s will face the Astros seven times within the first two weeks of the season — we’ll have to see which team drew the short straw on this gauntlet as it happens.
Angels
PECOTA PROJECTION >> 87-75 KEY ADDITIONS >> SP Jose Quintana, SP Alex Cobb, OF Dexter Fowler, C Kurt Suzuki, RP Alexander Claudio, RP Steve Cishek, RP Tony Watson
KEY LOSSES >> SS Andrelton Simmons, SP Julio Teheran, RP Matt Andriese, RP Hansel
Robles, RP Keynan Middleton.
OUR BREAKDOWN >> The Angels have one of the strongest rosters in baseball. Surrounding three-time AL MVP Trout are big names such as Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani. They also have budding players David Fletcher and Jose Iglesias along with Albert Pujols, and new addition Fowler.
But the Angels’ issue was never their offense. The biggest questions again facing the Angels are about the pitching staff’s ability to match the lineup’s output. Can Quintana and Cobb, as well as late-spring reliever additions Watson and Cishek, help the Angels make a substantial leap? They’ve not won the AL West since 2014, and an improved staff of arms will make the Angels a scarier competitor than in years past.
Athletics
PECOTA PROJECTION >> 83-79 KEY ADDITIONS >> SS Elvis Andrus, RP Trevor Rosenthal, DH Mitch Moreland, RP Sergio Romo, 2B Jed Lowrie, C Aramis Garcia KEY LOSSES >> SS Marcus Semien, RP Liam Hendriks,
DH Khris Davis, OF Robbie Grossman, RP Joakim Soria
OUR BREAKDOWN >> The prognosticators never quite like the A’s. For a third year in a row, PECOTA has them finishing third in the division. And the A’s have beaten the odds the last two years, earning a division title in 2020 that PECOTA projected would go to the Astros.
To be honest, this 2021 team is looking to be stronger than the 2020 team. The A’s might’ve lost Soria and the best closer in baseball, Hendriks, but they raked in $13.5 million in the Andrus trade that allowed them to swing deals with Romo, Moreland, Rosenthal and returning reliever Yusmeiro Petit.
Davis was beloved in Oakland and in the A’s clubhouse, but sending him to Texas might unlock the DH spot and, thus, more mix-and-match lineups. The A’s core that returns is rock-solid, and young arms such as Jesús Luzardo and A.J. Puk could help this A’s team reach another level. If the talent can reach its potential, the A’s may not only top the projections, but shatter them with another division title. At this point, the A’s next challenge will be to make a deep postseason run, as they haven’t won an ALCS game since 1992.
Mariners
PECOTA PROJECTION >> 71-91 KEY ADDITIONS >> SP James Paxton, RP Ken Giles, RP Kenyan Middleton
KEY LOSSES >> 2B Dee Gordon, RP Bryan Shaw
OUR BREAKDOWN >> The Mariners didn’t add too many pieces. This is a young team that could pose a significant challenge for the A’s and threaten to disrupt the AL West.
The Mariners finished third in the division last year, finishing 27-33 in the 60-game season. With Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis on hand, a core made up of Evan White, Dylan Moore, J.P. Crawford and Shed Long headed by veteran Kyle Seager makes a tough lineup to get through. Paxton adds experience to a sneaky talented pitching staff that includes Justus Sheffield, Marco Gonzalez and Yusei Kikuchi.
Rangers
PECOTA PROJECTION >> 68-94 KEY ADDITIONS >> DH Khris Davis, OF David Dahl, SP Mike Foltynewicz
KEY LOSSES >> SP Corey Kluber, OF Daniel Santana OUR BREAKDOWN >> The Texas Rangers are projected to finish last in the West.
The Rangers have a lot of talent: Nick Solak, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo, Leody Taveras, Eli White among the core. But they haven’t been to the postseason since 2016, and after a few seasons of slowly trading off talent, it’s clear this is a franchise in transition.