In Iraq, election fraud claims fuel uncertainty, divisions

>> More than three weeks after Iraqis voted in parliament elections, pro-Iran Shiite militias that emerged as the biggest losers are still rejecting the outcome of the vote, thrusting the country into uncertainty and political crisis.

Militia supporters have pitched tents near the entrance to Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone in an ongoing sit-in, threatening violence unless their grievances are addressed.

The unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud are casting a shadow over an election that was praised by the United States, the U.N. Security Council and others for being the smoothest in years and without major technical glitches. The standoff is also increasing tensions among rival Shiite factions that could reflect on the street and threaten Iraq’s newfound relative stability.

The Oct. 10 vote was held months ahead of schedule in response to mass protests in late 2019 that saw tens of thousands of people in Baghdad and predominantly Shiite southern provinces rally against endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment. They also protested against the heavy-handed interference of neighboring Iran in Iraq’s affairs through Iranbacked militias.

The election results further exposed the dangerous political divisions among Shiite factions. Shiite Muslims make up the majority of Iraq’s estimated 40 million people.

The biggest election gains were made by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who won 73 out of 329 parliament seats. While he maintains good relations with Iran, al-Sadr publicly opposes external interference in Iraq’s affairs. The Taqadum party led by Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, a Sunni, came second with 37 seats, while former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc won 35 seats.

Meanwhile, the Iranbacked Fatah Alliance that represents the Shiite paramilitary group known as the Popular Mobilization Forces lost two-thirds of its parliament seats, dropping from 48 to around 16 — a stunning defeat. The alliance had made gains after participating in elections for the first time in 2018. At the time, it was riding a wave of popularity after playing a major role, alongside Iraqi security forces and a U.S.-led coalition, in the defeat of Islamic State group extremists across the country in 2017.

But some began questioning the need for the PMF, an armed militia force that increasingly challenged the state’s authority. The force itself has splintered, with some factions aligned with top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani breaking away. The militias also lost some popularity in the past two years, alienating many after taking part in brutally suppressing the youth-led protest movement in late 2019 and early 2020.

Election results showed that even politicians who distanced themselves from Tehran years ago fared poorly, said Tamer Badawi, an associate fellow with the Bonn-based CARPO research center.